房地产价格变动对通货膨胀影响研究

发布时间：2018-03-02 19:12

本文选题：房地产价格　切入点：通货膨胀　出处：《苏州大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来我国房地产价格一路高涨，逐渐超出正常居民的承受能力，高房价成为大家关注的现实问题。伴随着高房价，我国通货膨胀压力日趋增大，物价走势与房价波动表现出较高一致性。因此，研究房地产价格波动对通货膨胀的影响，，有助于深化理论界对金融稳定和物价稳定的认识，为我国制定和执行有效的宏观调控政策提供理论依据和方向指导，促进房地产市场与国民经济的协调发展。本文在借鉴国内外已有研究成果的基础上，对房地产价格变动对通货膨胀的影响展开了理论研究和实证分析。首先对我国房价波动现状进行了概述，从波动趋势、特点以及社会影响方面对我国房地产价格波动现状进行分析，然后从理论上探讨研究房地产价格波动对通货膨胀影响的传导机制，房价波动会通过资产的财富效应、托宾Q效应、资产负债表效应等渠道影响社会的总需求，进而影响一般物价水平。继而以2008年至2012年间我国相关数据为样本，运用协整检验和向量误差修正模型、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解等计量方法，对房地产价格变动对通货膨胀的关系展开实证分析。结果显示，我国房地产价格波动与通货膨胀之间存在长期稳定的正向相关关系，房价波动在长期对通货膨胀有一定正向影响，短期对通货膨胀的影响不显著；在影响通货膨胀上涨的各因素中，房地产价格变动对通货膨胀影响占主要因素。最后，本文将研究结论与我国经济的实际情形相结合，建议政府应重视房地产价格变动对通货膨胀的影响及对通胀预期的指示作用，发挥利率杠杆等宏观调控工具，以维持房地产市场的稳定和经济可持续发展，使得通货膨胀保持在合理水平内，提高人民的生活水平。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the real estate prices in our country have been rising all the time, gradually exceeding the normal residents' affordability. High house prices have become a realistic problem that everyone pays close attention to. With the high housing prices, the inflationary pressure in our country is increasing day by day. Therefore, studying the impact of real estate price fluctuation on inflation is helpful to deepen the theoretical understanding of financial and price stability. It provides theoretical basis and direction guidance for the formulation and implementation of effective macro-control policies in China and promotes the coordinated development of the real estate market and the national economy. Based on the existing research results at home and abroad, this paper has carried out theoretical research and empirical analysis on the impact of real estate price changes on inflation. Firstly, the current situation of house price fluctuation in China has been summarized, and the fluctuation trend has been analyzed. The characteristics and social impact of real estate price fluctuation in China are analyzed, and then the transmission mechanism of real estate price fluctuation to inflation is studied theoretically. The price fluctuation will pass through the wealth effect of assets. Tobin Q effect, balance sheet effect and other channels affect the total demand of the society, and then affect the general price level. Then, taking the relevant data from 2008 to 2012 as the sample, we use the cointegration test and vector error correction model. Granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition are used to analyze the relationship between real estate price change and inflation. There is a long-term stable positive correlation between the fluctuation of real estate price and inflation in China. The fluctuation of house price has a positive effect on inflation in the long run, but the impact on inflation is not significant in the short term. Among the factors that influence inflation, the change of real estate price plays a major role in inflation. Finally, this paper combines the conclusions of the study with the actual situation of China's economy. It is suggested that the government should attach importance to the influence of the change of real estate prices on inflation and the indicative role of inflation expectations, and exert the interest rate lever and other macro-control tools in order to maintain the stability of the real estate market and the sustainable development of the economy. Keep inflation within a reasonable level and raise the standard of living of the people.
【学位授予单位】：苏州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23;F822.5

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