深圳市坪山汤坑城中村改造项目前期的风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-03-20 13:20

本文选题：城中村改造　切入点：风险识别　出处：《湘潭大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：城中村是我国城市化发展从初期外延式扩张向中后期内涵式发展的结果，也是城市化发展从初级向高级递进的必然趋势。由于城中村的存在牵涉到多方的利益，因此对其所进行的改造也由于多方利益难以实现均衡而面临诸多风险。本文以风险管理在深圳坪山汤坑项目前期策划中的应用为研究对象，站在房地产商卓越集团的角度，从对风险管理及城中村内涵出发，通过分析城中村改造风险管理特点，按照风险识别、风险评价和风险应对的思路具体探讨了风险管理在坪山汤坑项目前期策划阶段的应用。在风险识别方面，文章首先对坪山汤坑项目及卓越集团参与旧城改造的基本情况进行了介绍，对坪山汤坑项目在前期策划阶段可能遇到的政策风险、市场风险、财务风险、社会风险、公众干预风险以及管理与技术风险的具体内容进行识别分析，据此构建了坪山汤坑项目风险评价指标体系；风险管理的第二环节就是风险评价，文章首先借助层次分析法对风险指标进行定量分析，明确各指标对整个项目的风险影响程度，进而运用模糊综合评价法对该项目的风险水平进行评价，评估结果显示该项目处于中等风险水平，管理者必须对项目开发中将会遇到的风险进行合理预防；风险管理的第三环节就是风险应对，结合前文对风险因素的分析与评价，文章提出从政策、市场、财务、公众干预和管理与技术六个方面制定预防措施，，从而减轻各种风险因素对汤坑项目可能产生的影响，提高项目的成功率。本文的研究拓展了项目管理理论的实践应用领域，丰富了城中村改造理论的体系范围。对于深圳卓越集团来说，通过对坪山汤坑改造项目前期策划阶段风险的识别分析，能够帮助其准确、客观地判断项目的价值，科学预测项目未来可能面临的各种风险以及由此产生的影响，减少投资的风险和盲目性。此外，由于本文是站在城中村改造主体——房地产开发商的角度来探讨城中村改造项目在前期策划阶段的风险管理工作，因此文章研究的思路与方法也能够给其他参与城中村改造项目的房地产项目管理者提供一定的借鉴和参考，帮助其更好地提升项目风险管理水平。
[Abstract]:The village in the city is the result of the development of urbanization in China from the initial extension to the middle and late stages, and it is also the inevitable trend of the urbanization development from the primary to the higher. The existence of the village in the city involves the interests of many parties. Therefore, the transformation is faced with many risks because it is difficult to achieve balance in various interests. This paper takes the application of risk management in the pre-planning of the Pingshan Tangkeng Project in Shenzhen as the research object and stands at the angle of the excellent Group of Real Estate developers. Starting from the connotation of risk management and village in city, this paper discusses the application of risk management in the early planning stage of Pingshan Tangkeng Project according to the ideas of risk identification, risk evaluation and risk response through analyzing the characteristics of risk management in the transformation of urban villages. In the aspect of risk identification, the article first introduces the basic situation of Pingshan Tangkeng project and the excellent group participating in the old city transformation, and introduces the policy risk, market risk and financial risk that the Pingshan Tangkeng project may encounter in the early planning stage. The social risk, the public intervention risk and the concrete content of management and technical risk are identified and analyzed, according to which the risk evaluation index system of Pingshan Tangkeng project is constructed. The second link of risk management is risk evaluation. In this paper, the risk index is analyzed quantitatively with the help of analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and then the risk level of the project is evaluated by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The evaluation results show that the project is at a moderate risk level, and the manager must take reasonable precautions against the risks that will be encountered in the development of the project, and the third link of risk management is risk response, which is based on the analysis and evaluation of the risk factors mentioned above. This paper puts forward the preventive measures from six aspects of policy, market, finance, public intervention and management and technology, so as to reduce the possible impact of various risk factors on the Tangkeng project and improve the success rate of the project. The research in this paper expands the practical application field of project management theory and enriches the system scope of urban village reconstruction theory. For Shenzhen excellent Group, through the identification and analysis of the risk in the early planning stage of Pingshan Tangkeng Reconstruction Project, It can help it accurately and objectively judge the value of the project, scientifically predict the various risks that the project may face in the future and its impact, and reduce the risk and blindness of the investment. Because this article is standing in the city village transformation mainstay-real estate developer's angle to discuss the city village transformation project in the early planning stage of the risk management work, Therefore, the ideas and methods of this paper can also provide some reference and reference for other real estate project managers involved in urban village reconstruction projects, and help them to better improve the level of project risk management.
【学位授予单位】：湘潭大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.27

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