基于收益贴现模型的合肥城建估值研究

发布时间：2018-03-20 14:29

本文选题：房地产　切入点：收益贴现模型　出处：《东华大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：目前我国房地产行业进入调整时期,增速趋缓,区域化明显。合肥作为安徽省省会,长三角城市集团副中心城市,也是重要的国家级研究和教育基地,现代化制造业基地和综合交通枢纽,其在研究中小城市房地产行业中具有代表意义。房地产作为我国经济发展的支柱行业之一,一方面可以直接促进经济的增长,带动相关产业的发展,另一方面可以改善居民居住和生活条件,增加国家财政收入。同时估值研究可以应用于房地产的收购和兼并环节;利于管理者进行针对性的管理调整,实现公司价值最大化;利于投资者做出相对理性的投资决策;利于政府部门出台相应的法律法规,引导房地产行业健康发展;利于证券市场的稳定。本文主要针对房地产行业的现状和未来趋势,分析房地产行业现在存在的问题,阐述为什么选择房地产行业进行估值。在阐述估值常用的相对估值模型、期权定价模型以及收益贴现模型的理论和适用性的基础上,将三者进行比较,得出三种估值方法的优劣势,结合房地产行业估值特点,并分析为什么选择收益贴现法进行估值。在合肥城建的现状和未来趋势的基础上,阐述估值原因,分析为什么要对其进行价值评估,最后利用已选定的估值模型对其估值。将估值结果进行对比分析,得出相关结论。通过对合肥城建公司的估值,发现在我国证券市场上市的公司处于有效估值环境下,目标公司的股票价格基本能够反映股票的内在价值。从2008-2014年公司股价主要在10元左右波动,在相关因素的影响下,2015年开始,公司股价开始在7元左右至30元左右波动,考虑到公司的中小城市房地产领头地位,以及近两年处于快速发展阶段,“库存”问题不大,结合国家政策的大力支持,公司管理者应该积极拓展市场,提高发展目标,制定相关战略,促进合肥城建的发展。对投资者而言,合肥城建具有一定的投资价值。
[Abstract]:At present, the real estate industry in our country has entered a period of adjustment, the growth rate has slowed down and the regionalization is obvious. Hefei, as the provincial capital of Anhui Province and the sub-central city of the Yangtze River Delta Urban Group, is also an important national research and education base. The modern manufacturing base and comprehensive transportation hub are of great significance in the study of the real estate industry in small and medium-sized cities. As one of the pillar industries in China's economic development, real estate on the one hand can directly promote economic growth. To promote the development of related industries, on the other hand, it can improve the living and living conditions of residents, increase the national financial revenue. At the same time, valuation research can be applied to the acquisition and merger of real estate; it is conducive for managers to carry out targeted management adjustments. To maximize the value of the company, to facilitate investors to make relatively rational investment decisions, to facilitate government departments to issue relevant laws and regulations to guide the healthy development of the real estate industry; This paper aims at the present situation and future trend of the real estate industry, analyzes the existing problems in the real estate industry, and explains why the real estate industry is chosen for valuation. On the basis of the theory and applicability of the option pricing model and the income discount model, the advantages and disadvantages of the three valuation methods are obtained, combining with the real estate industry valuation characteristics. On the basis of the present situation and future trend of Hefei urban construction, this paper expounds the reasons of valuation, and analyzes why it should be valued. Finally, by using the selected valuation model, the paper compares and analyzes the valuation results and draws the relevant conclusions. Through the valuation of Hefei City Construction Company, it is found that the listed companies in the stock market of our country are in the effective valuation environment. The stock price of the target company can basically reflect the intrinsic value of the stock. From 2008-2014, the company's stock price mainly fluctuated around 10 yuan. Under the influence of related factors, the company's stock price began to fluctuate from about 7 yuan to 30 yuan on 2015. Considering the leading position of the company in small and medium-sized cities, and the fact that the company is in a stage of rapid development in the last two years, the problem of "inventory" is not big. Combined with the strong support of the state policy, company managers should actively expand the market and raise their development goals. To formulate relevant strategies to promote the development of Hefei urban construction. For investors, Hefei urban construction has certain investment value.
【学位授予单位】：东华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.51;F299.233.42

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