宏观调控视角下房地产价格影响因素的新测度

发布时间：2018-03-29 08:05

本文选题：特征选择　切入点：算法建模　出处：《经济问题探索》2014年01期

【摘要】：房地产市场调控的成效取决于调控的切入点,即寻找出引发房地产价格上涨的关键性影响因素,但是,目前国内外相关实证研究在特征变量提取以及建模方法上存在一些明显不足。本文创新性地将算法建模与数据建模结合起来,首先利用随机森林对解释变量进行筛选,进而创新性地提出兼具时间因素和空间因素的动态经济空间权重矩阵,并运用加法模型及乘法模型构建新型综合空间效应矩阵,对我国房地产价格的影响因素开展实证研究。实证结果显示,相邻地区间房价增长水平的关联性显著;需求结构的调整是房价调控的重点;成本冲击是房地产价格偏离正常水平的潜在因素;房地产税开征对平抑房价的效果有限。
[Abstract]:The effectiveness of real estate market regulation depends on the entry point of regulation, that is, to find out the key factors that lead to the rise of real estate prices, but, There are some obvious deficiencies in feature variable extraction and modeling methods in domestic and foreign empirical studies. This paper innovatively combines algorithm modeling with data modeling. Firstly, random forest is used to screen the explanatory variables. Then the dynamic economic spatial weight matrix with both time and space factors is proposed innovatively, and a new comprehensive spatial effect matrix is constructed by using the addition model and the multiplication model. The empirical research on the influencing factors of real estate price in China shows that the correlation of the price growth level between adjacent regions is significant, the adjustment of demand structure is the key point of housing price regulation and control. Cost shock is a potential factor for real estate prices to deviate from normal level, and the effect of levying real estate tax on stabilizing real estate prices is limited.
【作者单位】：厦门大学;
【分类号】：F299.23

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