预期、投机与中国城市房价泡沫

发布时间：2018-04-02 10:36

本文选题：房地产泡沫　切入点：预期均衡价格模型　出处：《金融研究》2014年02期

【摘要】：本文构建预期均衡价格模型,选用1999~2011年中国30个大中城市的面板数据,对这些城市房价偏离经济基本面的程度进行评价,运用房价收入比对住宅市场泡沫进行探讨,并分析了东中西部城市房价的区域差异及其原因。从时间维度来看,几乎所有样本城市的房价经历了泡沫出现、加速膨胀和逐步缓解的过程。从空间维度来看,绝大多数城市房价偏离了经济基本面,东部城市房地产泡沫高于中部和西部城市。面对中国大中城市房价偏离经济基本面的事实,建议继续实施房地产市场紧缩型宏观调控措施,更加注重房地产市场的预期管理和供给管理。
[Abstract]:This paper constructs the expected equilibrium price model, selects the panel data of 30 large and medium-sized cities in China from 1999 to 2011, evaluates the degree of housing prices deviating from the economic fundamentals in these cities, and probes into the housing market bubble by using the price-to-income ratio. From the perspective of time dimension, almost all the sample cities experienced the process of bubble emergence, accelerating expansion and gradual easing. From the perspective of spatial dimension, the paper analyzes the regional differences of housing prices in the east, west and west cities and their causes. Housing prices in most cities deviate from economic fundamentals, and the real estate bubble in eastern cities is higher than in central and western cities. In the face of the fact that housing prices in large and medium-sized cities in China deviate from economic fundamentals, It is suggested that the macro-control measures of the real estate market should continue to be implemented, and that more attention should be paid to the expected management and supply management of the real estate market.
【作者单位】：南京大学经济学院/南京大学长江三角洲经济社会发展研究中心;
【基金】：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“我国城市住房制度改革研究”(项目编号:10JZD0025) 国家社会科学基金重点项目“扩大内需与引导住房理性消费的宏观经济政策研究”(项目编号:08AJY010) 国家社科基金青年项目(12CJY018) 江苏省博士后科研资助计划(编号:1202089C) “江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目”的资助
【分类号】：F299.23

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