新兴经济体资本账户开放与宏观审慎政策工具选择

发布时间：2018-04-05 15:03

本文选题：新兴经济体　切入点：资本账户开放　出处：《首都经济贸易大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：20世纪80年代末,新兴经济体开启了资本账户开放的历程。资本账户开放犹如一把双刃剑,可能带来跨境资本流动的风险,由于新兴经济体的金融市场发展程度普遍较低,金融脆弱性的“原罪”使其更易遭受金融危机的冲击。为了防范系统性风险的扩散,维护金融稳定,运用宏观审慎政策工具干预资本流动的顺周期性成为必然。本文在理论分析的基础上,以印度和智利为例,阐述了其资本账户开放进程和宏观审慎政策工具实践,在具备一定条件的基础上谨慎选择资本账户开放的模式、次序有助于资本账户自由化的顺利推进。资本账户开放后容易引发大规模的国际资本流入,而且这种资本流入具有顺周期性,为了降低顺周期性,韩国、印度和智利为代表的新兴经济体都开发了一系列具有本国特色的宏观审慎政策工具箱。但是由于现有数据和评估方法的局限,对宏观审慎政策工具的有效性研究还不成熟,本文从定性角度对三国的工具有效性进行分析,认为贷款价值比(LTV)、债务收入比(DTI)等信贷类工具主要是调节房地产市场上的房价和杠杆率波动,逆周期资本要求和贷款损失拨备等资本类工具则主要是约束银行的信贷规模、增强银行抵御系统性风险的能力,使用频繁的准备金率则是为了调节金融市场的流动性。最后,中国当前不应加快资本账户开放,应从控制短期外债、推进汇率和利率市场化改革方面入手积极应对资本账户开放带来的跨境资本流动风险,充实宏观审慎政策工具箱,加强宏观审慎的全球合作。
[Abstract]:In the late 1980 s, emerging economies began the process of opening their capital accounts.The opening of capital account is like a double-edged sword, which may bring the risk of cross-border capital flow. Because of the low development degree of financial markets in emerging economies, the "original sin" of financial fragility makes it more vulnerable to financial crisis.In order to prevent the spread of systemic risk and maintain financial stability, it is inevitable to use macroprudential policy tools to intervene in the procyclicality of capital flow.On the basis of theoretical analysis, taking India and Chile as examples, this paper expounds the process of capital account opening and the practice of macroprudential policy tools. On the basis of certain conditions, this paper carefully selects the mode of capital account opening.Sequencing is conducive to the smooth advancement of capital account liberalization.After the opening of the capital account, it is easy to trigger large-scale international capital inflows, and this kind of capital inflow is pro-cyclical. In order to reduce the pro-cyclical, South Korea,Emerging economies represented by India and Chile have developed a set of macro-prudential policy toolkits with their own characteristics.However, due to the limitations of existing data and assessment methods, the effectiveness of macro-prudential policy tools is not yet mature. This paper analyzes the effectiveness of the three countries from a qualitative perspective.It is considered that credit instruments such as loan value ratio (LTV), debt income ratio (DTI) and so on are mainly to regulate the fluctuation of house prices and leverage ratio in the real estate market, while capital instruments such as countercyclical capital requirements and loan loss provisions are mainly used to constrain the credit scale of banks.To increase banks' ability to withstand systemic risk, frequent reserve requirements are used to regulate liquidity in financial markets.Finally, China should not speed up the opening of the capital account at present, but should actively deal with the risk of cross-border capital flows brought about by the opening of the capital account and enrich the toolbox of macro-prudential policies by controlling short-term foreign debt and promoting market-oriented reform of the exchange rate and interest rate.Strengthen macroprudential global cooperation.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.6

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