我国房地产宏观调控政策效应分析

发布时间：2018-05-02 13:11

本文选题：房地产 + 宏观调控　；参考：《西南财经大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国实行改革开放以后,一直在推动住房制度的改革,在经过几年左右的时间探索和实践之后,全面住房制度改革于1998年正式展开,逐步结束了计划经济时代实物分配、福利分房的住房制度,走上了住房商品化、分配货币化、交易市场化的改革道路。经过十几年的深化改革和加快发展,我国城镇居民的住房质量和居住环境有了显著的提高,多结构多层次的住房供应体系初步成型。但是另一方面,我国房地产市场在改革过程中也暴露出了诸多问题,如房价快速上涨、住房供求关系不平衡、房地产市场投资投机现象突出、保障性住房分配不公平等,房价快速持续上涨尤其是一线城市房价暴涨且居高不下的现象引起了政府和社会各界的高度重视。房地产业与我国宏观经济紧密相联,宏观经济的波动将导致房地产市场的波动,而房地产市场的波动也将对宏观经济发展产生显著影响。我国房地产市场发展出现的问题,影响了房地产市场的健康长远发展,为了规范房地产市场的秩序,政府出台了一系列房地产宏观调控政策。自2003年,我国把房地产业定位于国民经济的支柱产业以来,就不断对房地产市场进行宏观调控。房地产市场的宏观调控呈现出常态化趋势,政策内容不断深入与强化,调控结果逐步显现,但一些新情况、新问题也渐露端倪,并可能影响宏观调控政策效力的发挥和房地产市场未来的发展走向。因此,梳理和总结我国房地产市场宏观调控的经验和教训,适当调整和完善房地产宏观调控政策,对于规范我国房地产市场的发展具有重要意义。本文针对2003年至2013年这一时间段内,我国中央政府所出台的一系列房地产宏观调控政策进行回顾和总结,依托于政府与市场关系理论、政府行为理论和公共物品理论等经济学理论基础,对我国房地产宏观调控的政策效果进行评价。在此基础上,借鉴新加坡和香港地区的房地产政策案例,从中提炼归纳出改善我国房地产宏观调控政策的有益启示,并结合评价我国房地产宏观调控政策效果的结论,进而为完善我国房地产宏观调控政策提出可行性建议。基于上述思路,本文的研究内容主要分为六章,各章具体内容如卜：第一章,导论。本章主要论述了论文的研究背景和意义,交代了研究方法以及论文结构,总结了论文可能的创新和不足。本苹指出住房问题已经成为了困扰我国经济社会和谐稳定发展的重要难题,我国对房地产市场进行持续不间断的宏观调控,但是宏观调控结果并不是太理想,因此有必要针对近年来我国的房地产宏观调控政策进行梳理和总结,评判其政策效果以及分析政策失效原因,同时在借鉴国内外成功经验的基础上完善我国房地产宏观调控政策,实现我国房地产市场的健康有序发展。本章明确了论文的研究方法和具体框架,针对全部研究内容总结了论文可能的创新和不足之处。第二章,理论基础和文献综述。本章主要阐释了论文研究的理论基础,在阅读、参考、理解已有文献的基础上,对国内外学者在房地产宏观调控政策研究领域的研究成果进行了综述。本章中所阐释的理论基础主要为市场与政府关系理论、政府行为理论和公共物品理论。市场与政府关系理论是西方经济学的核心内容,从经济学学科的创立到繁荣发展的现在,市场与政府关系理论也经历了创新与发展,但实质上依然是解释在资源配置中市场与政府作用的划分,即在自由主义与政府干预主义之间徘徊。房地产市场中要正确区分市场调节作用和政府公共服务职能。政府行为理论是公共选择学派的重要研究内容,是对政府行为和政策进行经济学解释。政府对房地产市场进行宏观调控,出台了一系列的政策,这些政府行为或政策目标是什么。政府希望通过这些政策达到什么目标,宏观调控政策的效果如何,这是本文关注的重点。公共物品理论可以使我们明白物品的属性,即私人物品和公共物品,公共物品的提供或者使用具有负外部性,因此需要政府提供。房地产市场并不能够实现供求平衡,存在着市场失灵,不能够满足中低收入群体的住房需求,因此政府要发挥公共服务职能解决中低收入群体的住房问题。文献综述主要是介绍了国内外专家学者对房地产宏观调控和政策评价的一些研究成果,为本文后续的研究分析和政策建议提供了经验借鉴。第三章,我国房地产宏观调控的政策演变与效应评价。本章把我国中央政府从2003年至2013年所出台的房地产宏观调控政策进行了梳理总结,以政策时间和经济背景为分割,把此时间段内的宏观调控过程划分为三个阶段。第一阶段房地产宏观调控(2003-2008年)期间,我国经济出现了投资过热、重复建设等问题,本阶段调控的重点在于为固定资产投资热尤其是为房地产投资过热降温、抑制房价的快速上涨；第二阶段房地产宏观调控(2008年中-2009年)期间,我国经济受到全球金融危机的影响,出口萎缩、经济低迷、GDP增速减缓,为了迅速使我国国民经济走出低谷,本阶段宏观调控旨在鼓励房地产市场投资,带动关联产业发展而拉动国民经济增长；第三阶段房地产宏观调控(2010年以来)期间,世界主要经济体尚未走出全球金融危机的影响,我国经济正处于产业升级和深化改革的转型关键时期,本阶段宏观调控的主要目标是稳控房价、加大保障性住房投入、完善住房体系结构。根据我国的基本国情和房地产市场的实际情况,本文把我国房地产宏观调控政策效应的评价标准分为房价是否相对稳定、供求关系、社会公平三个部分。构建上述三部分的评价指标,通过对相关数据整理和分析,得到的结论是我国宏观调控政策的实际效果并不理想。第四章,我国房地产宏观调控政策失效的原因分析。虽然我国中、央政府出台的一系列房地产宏观调控政策取得了一定的成效,但是并未完全实现宏观调控政策的预期目标,我国房地产市场的发展情形也没有顺利走上健康有序的道路。根据第三章我国宏观调控政策的评价结果,基于第二章的经济学理论基础,从市场与政府的关系处理、中央政府与地方政府的政策博弈以及保障性住房中的政府供给三个角度来说明我国房地产宏观调控失效的原因。第五章,新加坡和香港地区房地产政策以及对我国的经验借鉴。本章通过详细介绍新加坡和香港地区的房地产政策情况,归纳总结两地房地产政策对于我国的有益启示。新加坡和香港地区与我国文化都是一脉相承,具有很好的代表性。新加坡通过政府组屋政策很好地解决了新加坡居民的住房问题,有力地支撑了新加坡经济的发展和社会的稳定。香港地区也是通过类似的政府建设公营房屋解决了中低收入群体的住房需求,但是随着香港政府对于房地产政策尤其是公营房屋政策的调整,出现了一些问题,这需要引起我们的注意和规避。第六章,我国房地产宏观调控的政策建议。通过前几章对我国房地产宏观调控政策演变与评价和政策失效的原因分析,结合新加坡和香港地区房地产政策的成功经验,得出可行性政策建议。我国房地产宏观调控政策的落脚点是公租房,通过大力建设公租房,构建以公租房为主体的保障性住房体系,夯实我国住房制度的基石,加大经济手段调节,利用金融、税收、土地、财政等政策实现我国房地产宏观调控的有效性。转变我国房地产宏观调控的政策方向,努力构建完善的保障性住房体系,通过保障中低收入群体的住房需求,形成“低端有保障、中端有市场、高端有调控”的科学合理住房制度格局,实现我国房地产市场的健康有序发展。
[Abstract]:After the reform and opening - up in China , the reform of housing system has been promoted . After a few years of exploration and practice , the reform of housing system in China ' s real estate market has also exposed many problems , such as the rapid increase of housing prices , the imbalance of housing supply and demand relations , the investment speculation in the real estate market , the unequal distribution of affordable housing , the rapid and sustained rise of housing prices , especially in the first - tier cities , and the high priority of the government and the community .

Real estate industry is closely related to the macro - economy of our country . The fluctuation of the macro - economy will lead to the fluctuation of the real estate market , and the fluctuation of the real estate market will have a significant impact on the macro - economic development . In 2003 , the government issued a series of real estate macro - control policies .

This paper reviews and summarizes the macro - control policies of real estate in China from 2003 to 2013 . Based on the theories of government and market relations , government behavior theory and public goods theory , this paper evaluates the policy effect of China ' s real estate macro - control policy .

Chapter One , Introduction . This chapter mainly discusses the background and significance of the thesis , discusses the methods of research and the structure of the paper , summarizes the possible innovations and shortcomings of the paper . It points out that housing problem has become an important problem which has puzzled our country ' s economic and social harmony and stability . But the macro - control results are not too ideal . At the same time , we should improve our country ' s real estate macro - control policy and realize the healthy and orderly development of our real estate market .

Chapter 2 , the theoretical foundation and the literature review . This chapter mainly explains the theoretical basis of the research of the thesis , summarizes the research results in the field of macro - control policy research of real estate by scholars both at home and abroad on the basis of reading , consulting and understanding the existing literature .

In chapter 3 , the policy evolution and effect evaluation of the macro - control of real estate in China are summarized , and the macro - control process in this period is divided into three stages based on the policy time and the economic background .
During the second - stage real estate macro - control ( mid - 2009 - 2009 ) , our country ' s economy is affected by the global financial crisis , the export is shrinking , the economy is depressed , the GDP growth rate is slowed down , in order to quickly bring the national economy out of the valley , the macro - control in this stage is designed to encourage the real estate market to invest and drive the development of the related industry to stimulate the growth of the national economy ;
During the third phase of real estate macro - control ( since 2010 ) , the major economies of the world have not yet come out of the global financial crisis . Our economy is in the key period of industrial upgrading and deepening reform . The main objective of macro - control in this stage is to stabilize the house prices , increase the investment of affordable housing and improve the housing structure . According to the country ' s basic national conditions and the real situation of the real estate market , this paper divides the evaluation criteria of the macro - control policy effect of real estate in our country into three parts : whether the house price is relatively stable , the supply and demand relationship and the social equity .

In chapter four , the reasons for the failure of macro - control policy of real estate in China are analyzed . Although China and Central Government have made some achievements in macro - control policies , the development of real estate market in our country has not smoothly embarked on a healthy and orderly way . According to the third chapter , the economic theory foundation of China ' s macro - control policy is based on the relationship between the market and the government , the policy game between the central government and the local government and the government supply in the safeguard housing .

Chapter V , Singapore and the Hong Kong area real estate policy and the experience of our country . This chapter introduces the real estate policy in Singapore and Hong Kong and summarizes the beneficial enlightenment of the real estate policy of the two places to our country . Singapore and the Hong Kong region and our culture are very good representative . Singapore has solved the housing demand of the middle - and low - income group through similar government construction public housing policy , but with the government ' s adjustment to the real estate policy , especially the public housing policy , there are some problems , which needs to arouse our attention and avoid .

Chapter 6 , the policy suggestion on macro - control of real estate in our country . Through the analysis of the change and evaluation of the macro - control policy of real estate in our country and the reasons of the policy failure in the first few chapters , this paper puts forward the feasibility policy suggestion based on the successful experience of the real estate policy in Singapore and Hong Kong .

In order to realize the healthy and orderly development of the real estate market in China , the policy direction of China ' s real estate macro - control is changed , and efforts are made to construct a perfect safeguard housing system .

【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23;F123.16

【参考文献】