区域经济差异对房价影响的实证研究

发布时间：2018-05-07 06:41

本文选题：区域经济差异 + 房价　；参考：《西南交通大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,中央和各级地方政府出台了许多楼市调控措施,但是调控效果差强人意。本文致力于研究房价的影响因素,以期对我国房价的影响因素进行更为完整的诊释,为政策制定者提供参考,使政府可以从促进区域经济均衡发展的角度进行房地产调控,维护全国房价的稳定。本文认为区域经济差异是造成房价持续走高的长期内在因素。为了使研究的问题具体化,可以进一步认为造成区域经济差异的一系列因素导致了房价的持续高涨。本文首先对区域经济差异影响因素做了分析,然后就区域经济差异对房价影响的机理做了理论研究。将上述归纳总结出的房价影响因素与区域经济差异影响因素作对比,我们发现,区域经济差异影响因素要么包含于房价影响因素,要么是区域经济差异影响因素所引致的因素。据此,我们可以假设：区域经济差异对房价存在影响,即区域经济差异对东中西部房价有推动作用。理论分析完成,就进入了本文的实证部分。首先,本文选取劳动参与率、投资水平、工业化水平、外贸依存度、城市化水平五个指标来表示区域经济差异的影响因素,并对它们进行度量。之后,利用我国31个省2002年至2009年的面板数据,对被解释变量住宅平均销售价格(Pi,t)和五个解释变量(劳动参与率(LABi,t)、投资水平(INVi,t)、工业化水平（INDi,t),外贸依存度(TRAi,t),城市化水平(URBi,t))建立面板数据模型,为了消除异方差和序列自相关,我们选用GLS的截面加权估计法(Cross Section Weights)检验方法,回归发现几乎所有省五个变量都显著,因此,我们对计量结果具体分析得出下面的结论。总体来看,造成区域经济差异的五个影响因素指标都对我国东中西部房价有着显著的影响,说明区域经济差异确实是解释近些年我国房价上涨的关键影响因素。就单个指标而言,五个区域经济差异因素指标对我国东中西部房价的影响各存在差异。其中,劳动参与率对中部房价的影响最为显著；投资水平在西部区域对房价的影响程度最为显著；工业化水平对东西部地区房价的影响较为显著；外贸依存度对对东中部地区房价的影响较为显著；城市化水平对西部地区房价的影响程度显著。因此,在制定和执行房地产政策时,区域经济差异需引起政府和行业的足够重视；努力缩小区域和城乡间的经济发展差距、促进生产要素合理流动和区域良性互动发展才是稳定房价的长久之计。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the central and local governments have introduced many measures to regulate the property market, but the regulatory effect is unsatisfactory. This paper is devoted to the study of the influencing factors of house prices, in order to make a more complete diagnosis and explanation of the influencing factors of housing prices in China, and to provide reference for policy makers, so that the government can regulate and control real estate from the angle of promoting the balanced development of regional economy. To maintain the stability of housing prices throughout the country. This paper argues that regional economic differences are the long-term internal factors that cause house prices to keep rising. In order to make the research specific, we can further think that a series of factors that cause the regional economic difference lead to the rising of house prices. In this paper, the influence factors of regional economic difference are analyzed, and then the mechanism of regional economic difference on housing price is studied theoretically. By comparing the factors of house price and regional economic difference, we find that the factors of regional economic difference are either contained in the factors of housing price or are caused by regional economic differences. Based on this, we can assume that regional economic differences have an impact on housing prices, that is, regional economic differences promote housing prices in the east, west, west and west. After the theoretical analysis is completed, it enters the empirical part of this paper. First of all, this paper selects the five indicators of labor participation rate, investment level, industrialization level, foreign trade dependence, urbanization level to express the influencing factors of regional economic difference, and measures them. Then, using panel data from 2002 to 2009 in 31 provinces in our country, In order to eliminate heteroscedasticity and sequence autocorrelation, panel data models were established for the explained variable residential average sales price (Piot) and five explanatory variables (labor participation rate, investment level, industrialization level, foreign trade dependence, urbanization level and urbanization level, respectively), respectively, in order to eliminate heteroscedasticity and sequence autocorrelation. In this paper, we choose GLS's cross Section weights test method, and we find that almost all of the five variables in the province are significant by regression analysis. Therefore, we draw the following conclusion by analyzing the measurement results concretely. In general, the five influencing factors that cause the regional economic difference have a significant impact on the housing prices in the east, west and west of China, which indicates that the regional economic differences are the key factors to explain the rise of housing prices in recent years. In terms of a single index, there are differences in the influence of the five regional economic difference factors on the housing prices in the east, west and west of China. Among them, the labor participation rate has the most significant influence on the housing prices in the central region, the investment level has the most significant impact on the housing prices in the western region, and the industrialization level has a more significant impact on the housing prices in the eastern and western regions. The degree of dependence on foreign trade has a significant impact on housing prices in the eastern and central regions, and the level of urbanization has a significant impact on housing prices in the western region. Therefore, in the formulation and implementation of real estate policies, regional economic disparities need to be given sufficient attention by governments and industries; efforts should be made to narrow the gap in economic development between the regions and between urban and rural areas. Promoting rational flow of factors of production and regional benign interactive development is a long-term plan to stabilize house prices.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F299.23

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