基于TEI@I方法论的青岛西海岸经济新区商品住宅价格预测研究

发布时间：2018-05-09 01:37

本文选题：TEI@I方法论 + 多元预测模型　；参考：《青岛理工大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：房地产业是国民经济的重要组成部分，其发展状况的好坏将直接关系到我国国民经济的发展水平、人民生活的和谐程度。商品住宅作为房地产业的一个重要组成部分，在国民经济中发挥的作用也越来越大，对广大人民群众的基本生活也产生着重大的影响。商品住宅在高速发展的同时其价格也在逐年飙升，房价成为影响社会发展的重要因素。青岛西海岸经济新区是2011年《山东半岛蓝色经济区发展规划》明确建设的新区。为了进一步促进青岛西海岸经济新区一体化的发展，2012年12月经国务院批复，将胶南市和黄岛区行政区划调整为新的黄岛区，为西海岸经济新区的一体化推进和国家级新区的设立创设了一个很好的基础。青岛西海岸经济新区未来的发展直接关乎青岛市经济社会发展的兴衰与走向。而商品住宅的价格波动以及未来的发展趋势，对新区的发展有十分重要的意义。因此，从商品住宅市场入手，寻求影响商品住宅价格变动的各因素，通过分析各影响因子在时间上的变动趋势，来对房价进行科学合理的预测，对指导政府宏观管理与调控，促进住宅市场健康发展有着重要的意义，同时对其他类似城市住宅市场的发展研究也有一定的借鉴性。本文以TEI@I方法论作为理论基础，从青岛市青岛西海岸经济新区商品住宅平均销售价格和影响住宅价格的因素入手，通过构建多元分析预测模型，对青岛西海岸经济新区2013年商品住宅价格进行研究预测。论文主要从四个部分进行分析研究。（1）对青岛西海岸经济新区的总体概况及商品住宅市场的现状进行分析，总结了商品住宅市场的特点，以及存在的问题。（2）分析影响青岛西海岸经济新区商品住宅价格的因素。首先从供需方面定性的分析影响价格变动的因素；然后利用主成分分析法，结合青岛西海岸经济新区的实际情况，通过定量分析确定影响青岛西海岸经济新区商品住宅价格的主要因素。（3）基于TEI@I方法论的文本挖掘(Text mining)+经济计量(Econometrics)+智能技术(Intelligence)@集成技术(Integration)的思想，提出了商品住宅价格预测模型的设计与构建思路。主要以多元回归、Bayes线性预测模型以及GM(1,1)非线性预测模型为计量模型，然后利用IOWA算子对这些预测模型进行集成分析，进一步精确预测结果。（4）运用基于TEI@I方法论构建的多元预测模型，对青岛西海岸经济新区商品住宅价格进行预测，通过对多年预测值与实际房价的比较，，得出本预测模型具有较高的准确性，可以较准确的预测未来青岛西海岸经济新区商品住宅的价格。根据预测的结果，对青岛西海岸商品住宅价格做出分析，提出对策和建议。
[Abstract]:The real estate industry is an important part of the national economy, and the quality of its development will directly affect the development level of our national economy and the harmonious degree of people's life. As an important part of the real estate industry, commercial housing plays a more and more important role in the national economy and has a great impact on the basic life of the broad masses of the people. With the rapid development of commercial housing, its price is also soaring year by year, which has become an important factor affecting the development of society. Qingdao West Coast Economic Zone is a new area which is clearly constructed in 2011 "Shandong Peninsula Blue Economic Zone Development Plan". In order to further promote the integration of the new economic district on the west coast of Qingdao, in December 2012, with the approval of the State Council, the administrative divisions of Jiaonan City and Huangdao District were adjusted to the new Huangdao District. It provides a good foundation for the integration of the new economic zone along the west coast and the establishment of the national new zone. The future development of Qingdao West Coast Economic Zone is directly related to the rise and fall of Qingdao's economic and social development. The fluctuation of commodity housing price and the future development trend are of great significance to the development of the new district. Therefore, starting with the commodity housing market, this paper seeks the factors that affect the change of commodity housing price, analyzes the changing trend of each influencing factor in time, makes a scientific and reasonable forecast of the house price, and guides the government to manage and regulate the house price. It is of great significance to promote the healthy development of housing market. On the basis of TEI@I methodology, this paper starts with the average selling price of commercial housing and the factors affecting housing price in Qingdao West Coast Economic New area, and constructs a multivariate analysis and prediction model. This paper studies and forecasts the commodity housing price in the new economic district of Qingdao west coast in 2013. The thesis mainly carries on the analysis and research from four parts. This paper analyzes the general situation of Qingdao West Coast Economic New area and the present situation of commercial housing market, summarizes the characteristics of commodity housing market and the existing problems. (2) analyze the factors that influence the commodity housing price in the new economic zone of Qingdao west coast. First, qualitatively analyzing the factors that influence the price change from the aspect of supply and demand; then using the principal component analysis method, combining with the actual situation of Qingdao West Coast Economic New area, Through quantitative analysis to determine the main factors affecting the commodity housing prices in the new economic zone of the west coast of Qingdao. 3) text Mining based on TEI@I Methodology) econometrics) Intelligent Technology / Integration Technology, and puts forward the idea of Integration The design and construction of commodity housing price prediction model are presented. The multivariate regression Bayesian linear prediction model and the GM1 / 1) nonlinear prediction model are taken as the econometric models. Then the integrated analysis of these prediction models is carried out by using IOWA operator, and the prediction results are further accurate. 4) using the multivariate forecasting model based on TEI@I methodology to forecast the commodity housing price in the new economic area of Qingdao west coast. By comparing the forecasted value with the real house price, it is concluded that this forecasting model has high accuracy. Can accurately predict the future of Qingdao West Coast Economic Zone commodity housing prices. According to the forecast results, this paper analyzes the commodity housing prices in the west coast of Qingdao, and puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions.
【学位授予单位】：青岛理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.233.4;F224

【引证文献】