我国债券市场流动性危机成因研究

发布时间：2018-05-15 17:49

  本文选题：流动性 + 金融去杠杆　； 参考：《对外经济贸易大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,随着我国金融市场的快速发展,直接融资在社会融资总量的比重不断提高。我国直接融资市场以债券市场为主,2016年末我国债券市场托管量已达58.14万亿元,仅次于美国和日本,位列第三。自2012年我国对外公布社会融资规模数据以来,无论是在社会融资存量还是增量中,企业债券融资成为仅次于人民币贷款的第二大融资方式,截至2016年末,我国社会融资存量规模高达155.99万亿元人民币,其中企业债券存量融资为17.92万亿元,占比11%;当年社会融资规模增量规模178,023亿元,其中企业债券增量融资为29,993亿元,占比17%,而2012年社会融资规模增量规模157,631万元,其中企业债券增量融资为22,551亿元,占比14%。得益于国家政策支持,我国债券市场保持了繁荣发展,市场主体的数量和种类不断增多,产品不断丰富,债券融资规模不断上升,制度不断完善,为经济快速发展提供了重要的资金保障,因此,我国债券市场的健康、稳定、有序、快速发展对于维护金融市场和实体经济的健康发展,实现经济结构转型升级十分重要。然而,自2008年金融危机爆发后,我国债券市场的快速发展也并非一帆风顺,一共经历四次流动性危机。本文以2008年金融危机后发生的四次流动性危机为研究对象,通过对比和数据分析,总结了引发我国债券市场流动性危机的主要因素。研究结果表明:流动性危机主要与包括季节性因素、人民币贬值因素和信用事件因素密切相关,但这些常规因素并非决定因素,只是起到助推或加强流动性紧张的作用;社会融资需求的增长与货币的收紧造成资金缺口,是2011年和2014年底两次流动性危机爆发的主因。金融机构高杠杆、期限错配严重造成的监管机构持续去杆杠,是2013年年中和2016年底两次流动性危机爆发的主要原因;金融危机后我国经济增长过度依赖货币强刺激和房地产投资,造成实体经济越发疲软,产能严重过剩,虚拟经济繁荣,而长期存在的二元融资结构,又加剧了资金配置效率低下的矛盾,使得过度资金滞留在金融体系空转,是流动性危机的根本原因。最后,结合四次流动性危机产生的原因,本文从加强监管部门、金融机构和企业三方合作以及控制负债规模两个方面提出预防和应对流动性危机的建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid development of China's financial market, the proportion of direct financing in the total amount of social financing is increasing. China's direct financing market is dominated by the bond market. At the end of 2016, the amount of bond market in China has reached 58.14 trillion yuan, ranking third after the United States and Japan. Since the publication of social financing scale data in China in 2012, corporate bond financing has become the second largest financing method after RMB loans in both the stock and increment of social financing. Until the end of 2016, corporate bond financing has become the second largest form of financing after RMB loans. The scale of the stock of social financing in our country is as high as 155.99 trillion yuan, of which the stock of enterprise bonds is 17.92 trillion yuan, accounting for 11 percent of the total; in that year, the scale of social financing increased by 17.8023 trillion yuan, of which the incremental financing of corporate bonds was 2.9993 trillion yuan. In 2012, the scale of social financing increased by 1.57631 billion yuan, of which corporate bonds increased to 2.2551 trillion yuan, accounting for 14.4 percent. Thanks to the support of national policies, China's bond market has maintained a prosperous development, with the number and variety of market subjects increasing, the products constantly rich, the scale of bond financing continuously rising, and the system constantly improving. Therefore, the healthy, stable, orderly and rapid development of China's bond market is very important to maintain the healthy development of financial market and real economy, and to realize the transformation and upgrading of economic structure. However, since the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008, the rapid development of China's bond market is not smooth, a total of four liquidity crises. Taking the four liquidity crises that occurred after the financial crisis in 2008 as the research object, this paper summarizes the main factors causing the liquidity crisis in China's bond market through comparison and data analysis. The results show that the liquidity crisis is closely related to seasonal factors, RMB depreciation factors and credit event factors, but these conventional factors are not decisive factors, but only play a role in promoting or strengthening liquidity tension; The funding gap caused by the growth in social financing demand and the tightening of the currency was the main cause of the two liquidity crises that broke out in 2011 and late 2014. The high leverage of financial institutions and the serious mismatch of the term caused by the continued removal of regulators was the main reason for the outbreak of the two liquidity crises in mid-2013 and late 2016. After the financial crisis, our country's economic growth was excessively dependent on strong monetary stimulus and real estate investment, which led to the weakening of the real economy, the serious overcapacity, the prosperity of the virtual economy, and the long-standing dual financing structure. The contradiction of low efficiency of capital allocation is aggravated and the excessive capital is stranded in the financial system, which is the fundamental cause of liquidity crisis. Finally, combined with the causes of the four liquidity crises, this paper puts forward some suggestions to prevent and deal with the liquidity crisis from the aspects of strengthening the supervision department, the tripartite cooperation between financial institutions and enterprises, and controlling the scale of liabilities.
【学位授予单位】：对外经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.51
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本文编号：1893310