人民币汇率预期对我国房地产价格影响的非线性机制研究——基于STR模型的分析

发布时间：2018-05-31 05:14

  本文选题：人民币汇率预期 + 房地产价格　； 参考：《软科学》2017年12期

【摘要】：通过构建时间序列(2005.7~2016.12)的STR模型,本文验证了人民币汇率预期对我国房地产价格的非线性效应。研究结果显示:渐进稳步的升值预期(2005.7~2014.12)通过资本流动效应促进了我国房地产价格的上涨;而大幅度的升值预期将促使房价急剧上涨以及资产泡沫化。由于央行外汇市场干预以及宽松货币信贷政策导致大量流动性进入房地产市场,近年大幅贬值预期(2015.1~2016.12)加剧了我国房地产价格的不断攀升。货币供应量较人民币汇率预期对房价的影响系数更大,表明2005年汇率改革以来我国总体相对宽松的货币政策是房价上涨以及资产泡沫化的主要原因。政策建议为,进一步完善人民币汇率市场化形成机制,积极引导和稳定人民币汇率预期,减弱国际市场对人民币汇率大幅升值或大幅贬值的预期;央行应保持货币政策稳健中性,在保持流动性合理充裕的同时,注重抑制资产泡沫和防范经济金融风险。
[Abstract]:By constructing the STR model of time series, this paper verifies the nonlinear effect of RMB exchange rate expectation on real estate prices in China. The results show that the gradual and steady appreciation expectation can promote the rise of real estate prices through the effect of capital flow, while the large appreciation expectation will promote the sharp rise of house prices and the bubble of assets. As the central bank's intervention in the foreign exchange market and easy monetary and credit policies led to a large amount of liquidity entering the real estate market, the expectation of a sharp depreciation in recent years has exacerbated the rising real estate prices in China. The influence coefficient of money supply on house price is greater than the RMB exchange rate expectation, which indicates that the relatively loose monetary policy since the exchange rate reform in 2005 is the main reason for the rise of house price and the bubble of assets. The policy suggestions are to further improve the marketization mechanism of RMB exchange rate, actively guide and stabilize the expectation of RMB exchange rate, and weaken the expectation that the international market will greatly appreciate or devalue the RMB exchange rate; The central bank should keep the monetary policy steady and neutral, while keeping the liquidity reasonably abundant, pay attention to restrain the asset bubble and guard against the economic and financial risk.
【作者单位】： 武汉大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金国际合作研究项目(71661137003) 国家社会科学基金一般项目(14BJY187) 教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(15JZD013)
【分类号】：F299.23;F832.6
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本文编号：1958425