城市住房援助政策评估与仿真实验

发布时间：2018-06-01 15:11

本文选题：住房政策 + 住房保障　；参考：《华中农业大学》2013年博士论文

【摘要】：我国住房制度改革以来城市居民住房自有率和人均面积获得了较大提升,但大城市高房价对城市新增人口和弱势群体产生了明显排斥,夹心层现象也比较严重。这是到2020年实现“住有所居”所面临的重大挑战。为此政府拟大量增加公共住房(经适房和公租房)建设量,试图缓解中低收入者买房负担重、租房难、住房状况改善缓慢等社会问题。但在城市层面,经适房政策目标和实际绩效间存在较大差距。在政策层面,关于公共住房合理供给结构、经适房存废与否和住房补贴方式问题仍存在较大争议,本研究对此在理论上进行了探索,并使用多种方法进行了评测和比较。论文首先基于国际惯例提出住房政策的主要目标是支援和帮助中低收入群体获得适宜住房。住房政策中包含住房保障和住房援助两类,“住房保障”以房为本,目标是为最低收入者提供“基本住房”。住房援助以人为本,以支援帮助居民获得可负担的“适宜住房”为目标。住房保障和住房援助在政策目标上存在递进关系,在政策工具上有差异。论文基于问卷调查和文献研究对住房援助进行了定义,将实践中的援助活动分为政策型、项目型、金融型、科技型和非政府型五种类型。论文归纳了我国援助工具集合,发现现有政策和项目都偏向购房援助,忽视了租房援助。根据我国与世界主流的住房模式的异同,总结了适合我国国情的住援经验,提出应加强上位法规制定、产权转移兼顾租售、激励雇主进行住房援助和加快公共住房的市场化、社会化改革的建议。囤房现象是加剧大城市住房紧张和结构失衡的主要原因。论文通过解析中高收入家庭囤房的原因,论证了我国长期实行的购房援助政策在家庭高储蓄率心智模式下会导致负面效应,因此住房政策应保持中性,避免造成贫富悬殊和社会阶层严重分化。治理囤房的策略重点是弱化囤房动机、推动市场化的公租房项目、提高存量住房的周转速度和使用效率。就经适房是否应取消的问题,论文进行了经适房和公租房的政策对比。通过文献研究,比较了经适房管理政策调整前后的住房产权结构变化,发现政策正在向经适房全封闭运行的方向改革。论文按照绩效、效率、充足性、公平性、回应性和适宜性六项评估标准,将住房援助政策目标分解为具体的子目标。利用民意测评和模糊评价法,对当前试图以公租房取代经适房的政策改革进行了绩效预评估。证明了相同住房财政支出情况下,公租房不宜完全替代经适房。单纯调整援助方式,实行以公租房为主流的政策将难以提高城市住房政策的整体绩效。论文论证了公租房和经适房政策不应偏废,租售两种援助方式各有利弊,应根据市场需求、因地制宜灵活运用。针对公共住房管理中的福利错配和公平难题,论文通过7个相似制度案例进行聚类分析,论证了许可权(配额)交易是一种适合市场经济体制的管理工具,可以移植到公共住房领域。通过对武汉市和黄石市(住建部公租房试点城市)的案例研究,结合与其他大城市公租房管理政策的比较,探讨了推行以可交易房券为补贴方式的改革历程和经验教训,论证了住房援助应采用更加市场化的方式来进行,通过合理运用许可权交易进行政府规制可提高援助政策绩效。为了评估关键援助政策工具的长期效果,论文通过对购房者的行为调查,将住房和家庭分为了具有共性的若干子类,依据主体行为规则构建了基于Netlogo仿真平台的房地产市场多主体微观仿真模型。该模型包含了商品房、经适房和公租房三个子市场,家庭可根据自身情况进入该三个市场进行交易,公共住房和商品房也可有条件转化。该模型考虑了城市区位特征和活动中心,模拟了家庭综合考虑房价(租)和交通成本的行为模式,集成了家庭的区位选择与租售选择。仿真模型使用武汉市2000～2010年的历史数据进行了标定和有效性校验。论文利用仿真模型对已开展和未开展的住房援助政策进行了实验。发现当新增公共住房的总比例少于10%时,对商品住房市场的冲击比较小的,成交量没有明显变化。但公共住房配建比例越大,成交量震动波幅越大,比例越小,震动波幅越小。对仿真城市而言,采用10%的规划配建比例(经适房和公租房各5%),公租房就会在2015年后出现大于15%的空置率,因此该政策应在2015年左右逐步调整或取消。如果保持低于平均住房面积60%的公共住房准入标准,公租房项目在2015年后就会出现明显的空置率上升。如果放宽到低于全市平均面积水平就可以准入,则空置率始终在10%以内。如果要维持10%配建比例时,该市应适当调高准入标准,建议用“9070”标准(即家庭收入标准为90%,人均住房面积标准为70%)取代“8060”标准,这样可维持适度的轮候时间又不至于出现申购不足。通过多次运行仿真还发现经适房比例增大,高收入人群平均家庭总资产降低,最低收入家庭总资产增加,中等收入人群不明显。显示经适房对贫富差距的调节相对有效。房产税是一种包容性的购房援助,但对租房者改善作用不大。提高个人售房所得税率可以增加无房户的租房面积,但对有房困难户没有显著影响。论文根据住房援助的基本原理和政策目标,简要回顾了住房制度改革的历史,探讨了住有所居的实现路径,提出了从剩余模式经多元模式向高级普惠模式过渡的构想,并结合我国当前社会结构变动趋势和前述实证研究成果提出了政策建议。
[Abstract]:Since the reform of the housing system in China, the ownership rate and per capita area of urban residents have been greatly improved, but the high house prices in large cities have obviously rejected the city's new population and the disadvantaged groups, and the phenomenon of the sandwich layer is also serious. This is a major challenge to realize the "live in residence" in 2020. The construction of the common housing (through the suitable housing and public rental housing) attempts to alleviate the social problems such as the heavy burden of housing, the difficulty of housing and the slow improvement of the housing situation. However, there is a big gap between the policy goals and the actual performance of the housing policy at the urban level. At the policy level, the rational supply structure of public housing, the disuse of the housing and the housing supplement and the housing supplement There is still much controversy about the way of sticking. This research has been explored theoretically, and has been evaluated and compared by various methods.
Based on international practice, the main goal of the housing policy is to support and help middle and low income groups to obtain suitable housing. Housing policy includes two categories of housing security and housing assistance. Housing security is based on housing and the goal is to provide "basic housing" for the lowest income. Housing assistance is the basis for people to help the living. The people obtain affordable housing as the target. Housing security and housing assistance have a progressive relationship in policy objectives, and there are differences in policy tools. Based on the questionnaire survey and literature research, the paper defines the housing assistance, and divides the aid activities into policy, project, financial, scientific and non-governmental type. Five types. The paper sums up the collection of aid tools in China, and finds that the existing policies and projects are biased towards the assistance of housing purchase and neglect the housing assistance. According to the similarities and differences between China and the mainstream of the world housing model, we have summed up the living aid experience suitable for the national conditions of our country, and put forward that the upper regulations should be strengthened, the transfer of property rights should be taken into account and the employer should be encouraged to live. Housing assistance and speeding up the marketization of public housing and proposals for socialized reform.
The phenomenon of hoarding is the main reason that aggravates the housing tension and structural imbalance in large cities. Through the analysis of the reasons for the high income household hoarding, the paper demonstrates that the long-term housing assistance policy in China will lead to negative effects under the mental pattern of high household savings rate, so the housing policy should be kept neutral to avoid the disparity between the rich and the poor and the society. The strategy of harnessing hoarding is to weaken the hoarding motive, promote the market - oriented public rental housing projects, and improve the turnover rate and efficiency of the stock housing.
Through the literature study, the paper compares the changes in the housing property right structure before and after the adjustment of the housing management policy through literature research, and finds that the policy is reforming to the full closed operation of the suitable housing. The paper is based on the performance, efficiency, adequacy, fairness, responsiveness and responsiveness. According to the six criteria of suitability assessment, the target of housing assistance policy is decomposed into a specific sub goal. The performance pre evaluation is carried out by public opinion assessment and fuzzy evaluation method, which proves that public rental housing should not completely replace the suitable housing under the circumstances of the same housing financial expenditure. The policy of public rental housing as the mainstream policy will not improve the overall performance of the urban housing policy. The paper demonstrates that the public rental housing and the housing policy should not be abandoned, and the two kinds of renting and selling have advantages and disadvantages, which should be applied flexibly according to the market demand.
In view of the problem of welfare mismatch and equity in public housing management, the paper demonstrates that the license (quota) transaction is a management tool suitable for the market economy system and can be transplanted into the field of public housing through 7 similar cases, which can be transplanted into the field of public housing. Through the case of Wuhan and Huangshi (the pilot city of the Public Housing Department of the Ministry of housing and construction) According to the comparison of the public rental housing management policies in other large cities, this paper discusses the reform process and experience of carrying out the tradable housing voucher as a subsidy method, and demonstrates that the housing assistance should be carried out in a more marketable way, and the performance of the aid policy can be improved through the rational use of the license transaction into the administrative government regulation.
In order to evaluate the long-term effect of the key aid policy tools, the paper divides housing and family into several subcategories by investigating the behavior of the buyers, and builds a multi-agent micro simulation model based on the Netlogo simulation platform based on the main behavior rules. The model includes the commercial housing, the suitable housing and the public rent. House three sub markets, families can enter the three markets according to their own circumstances, and the public housing and commercial housing can also be transformed. The model takes into account the urban location and activity center, simulates the behavior model of family's comprehensive consideration of house price (rent) and traffic cost, and integrates family location selection and rental choice. Simulation The model was calibrated and validated by using the historical data of Wuhan for 2000~2010 years.
The paper uses the simulation model to test the housing aid policy which has been carried out and undeveloped. It is found that when the total proportion of the new public housing is less than 10%, the impact on the commodity housing market is small and the volume has not changed obviously. But the larger the proportion of the public housing, the greater the amplitude of the transaction volume, the smaller the proportion and the more amplitude of the vibration. Small. For the simulation city, with 10% planning and allocation ratio (5%), public rental housing will appear more than 15% vacancy rate after 2015, so the policy should be adjusted or cancelled gradually around 2015. If the public housing access standard is lower than the average housing area of 60%, the public rental housing project will be after 2015. There is an obvious increase in vacancy rate. If it is relaxed to lower than the average level of the city, the vacancy rate is always within 10%. If the proportion of 10% construction is to be maintained, the city should appropriately adjust the standard of access, and suggest that the "9070" standard (the standard of family income is 90%, and the per capita housing area standard is 70%) should be replaced by the "8060" standard. In this way, the moderation of the waiting time will not be inadequate. Through the simulation, the proportion of the housing is increased, the average household assets of the high income population are reduced, the total assets of the households with the lowest income increase, the middle income population is not obvious. It shows that the adjustment of the housing to the poor rich gap is relatively effective. Inclusive purchase assistance has little effect on renters. Increasing the income tax rate of individual housing can increase the area of housing without housing, but has no significant impact on households with housing difficulties.
Based on the basic principles and policy objectives of housing assistance, the paper briefly reviews the history of housing reform, probes into the realization path of housing, and puts forward the conception of the transition from the surplus mode to the advanced and inclusive model through multiple patterns, and puts forward the policy in combination with the current trends of the social structure and the results of the previous empirical research. Suggestion.
【学位授予单位】：华中农业大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23

【参考文献】