城市综合体项目评估模型与应用

发布时间：2018-06-01 23:58

本文选题：城市综合体 + 价值评估　；参考：《上海交通大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：房地产行业是国民经济的重要命脉，随着房地产行业的快速发展，传统的致力于住宅开发的房地产开发企业正在转型，逐步向多元化发展。战略转型的过程对房地产开发企业是机遇也是挑战，如何在众房地产企业中以最合适的价格去拿地，，如何准确评估项目价值也相应成为房地产开发企业以及资本市场关注的焦点。对于房地产项目价值评估，常用的定价模型是现金流折现模型，该模型使用未来的现金流情况折现后去估计项目整体价值。但是，现金流模型的缺陷也是非常明显的，对于未来经营情况的不确定性，数据的可调整的范围很大，直接导致运用模型计算得到的项目价值可信度较低。本文从中国商业地产发展的历程出发，首先分析了商业地产的特征，然后基于这些特征，结合金融工程理论对模型进行了重点分析和改进，从而弥补了现金流估值模型的部分缺陷，增强了模型的可操作性和可靠性，同时，深入分析了改进后的模型应用于地产项目估值应用的优势和现阶段应用的不足之处。最后，对模型做了部分敏感性测试并分析了相关参数的性质和意义。通过本文的研究，期权定价模型相比其他几种依赖于现金流估值模型，更适合对商业地产项目价值评估，不过本文推导的模型也有一定局限性。
[Abstract]:The real estate industry is an important lifeline of the national economy. With the rapid development of the real estate industry, the traditional real estate development enterprise which devotes to the residential development is transforming and gradually developing to the diversification. The process of strategic transformation is an opportunity and a challenge for the real estate development enterprises. How to get the land at the most appropriate price among the real estate enterprises? How to accurately evaluate the value of the project has also become the focus of real estate development enterprises and the capital market. For real estate project valuation, the commonly used pricing model is the cash flow discount model, which uses the future cash flow discount to estimate the overall value of the project. However, the defects of cash flow model are also very obvious. For the uncertainty of future business situation, the range of data can be adjusted is very large, which directly leads to the low credibility of the project value calculated by using the model. Starting from the course of the development of commercial real estate in China, this paper first analyzes the characteristics of commercial real estate, and then, based on these characteristics, combines the theory of financial engineering to analyze and improve the model. It makes up for some defects of the cash flow valuation model and enhances the maneuverability and reliability of the model. At the same time, the advantages of the improved model applied to the real estate project valuation and the shortcomings of the current application are analyzed in depth. Finally, some sensitivity tests of the model are made and the properties and significance of the related parameters are analyzed. Through the research of this paper, the option pricing model is more suitable for evaluating the value of commercial real estate project than other models which depend on cash flow valuation, but the model derived in this paper also has some limitations.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23

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