上海房地产业与区域经济相关性研究

发布时间：2018-06-05 01:25

本文选题：房地产业 + 区域经经济　；参考：《上海师范大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：上海作为我国第一大城市，其房地产业的发展受到社会各界的高度关注。近年来，上海房地产业发展突飞猛进，为其区域经济的发展带来了突出贡献。但随着房地产业的急剧发展，如果不能对房地产业的发展进行合理的引导，则会严重影响区域经济的整体发展。因此，如何把握上海房地产业与上海区域经济协调发展的规律，成为学术界研究的重要内容之一。本论文首先对房地产业与区域经济协调发展的理论进行了梳理和分析研究，在此基础上，对上海房地产业的发展历史进行了回顾，并对当前上海房地产业的现状做了进一步分析。经过分析发现，上海房价收入比的失衡、投资过度依赖银行贷款、房地产市场存在过度投机等问题已逐渐显露端倪。针对这些问题，结合产业经济学、区域经济学、统计学等学科内容，本文运用格兰杰因果检验、多元线性回归等研究方法对上海房地产业及其上海区域经济关系做了进一步研究。研究发现，上海房地产业与其区域经济之间互为Granger因果关系，即房地产业与区域经济相互影响，相互作用；但相对于上海经济增长对其房地产业发展的推动作用，房地产业发展对其区域经济的带动作用更为显著。同时本文利用灰色综合评定模型对上海房地产业及其相关产业关联度进行研究分析，，并总结了与房地产业发展关系更为紧密的前几位行业，分别为电力、热力、燃气及水生产及供应业；金融业；制造业；建筑业和租赁与商务服务业，这一结论为我们进一步看待房地产业以及如何制定相关政策提供了重要参考依据。最后在理论和实证研究的基础上就上海房地产业与区域经济的协调发展提出了参考意见与建议。
[Abstract]:As the largest city in China, the development of Shanghai's real estate industry is highly concerned by all walks of life. In recent years, Shanghai real estate industry has developed by leaps and bounds, which has brought outstanding contribution to the development of its regional economy. However, with the rapid development of the real estate industry, if the development of the real estate industry can not be reasonably guided, it will seriously affect the overall development of regional economy. Therefore, how to grasp the law of the coordinated development of Shanghai real estate and Shanghai regional economy has become one of the important contents of academic research. This paper firstly combs and analyzes the theory of coordinated development of real estate and regional economy, and then reviews the development history of Shanghai real estate industry. And the current situation of Shanghai real estate industry to do a further analysis. Through analysis, it is found that the imbalance of house price to income ratio in Shanghai, the excessive reliance on bank loans for investment, and the existence of excessive speculation in the real estate market have gradually revealed some problems. In view of these problems, combined with the contents of industrial economics, regional economics, statistics and other subjects, this paper uses Granger causality test, The multivariate linear regression method is used to study the real estate industry and its regional economic relationship in Shanghai. It is found that the relationship between Shanghai real estate industry and its regional economy is Granger causality, that is, real estate industry and regional economy interact with each other, but relative to Shanghai's economic growth, it promotes the development of real estate industry. The development of real estate industry plays a more important role in regional economy. At the same time, this paper uses the grey comprehensive evaluation model to study and analyze the correlation degree of Shanghai real estate industry and its related industries, and summarizes the former industries which are more closely related to the development of real estate industry, which are electric power and heat respectively. The conclusion of gas and water production and supply industry; financial industry; manufacturing industry; construction industry and leasing and business service industry provides an important reference for us to further look at the real estate industry and how to formulate relevant policies. Finally, on the basis of theoretical and empirical research, the author puts forward some suggestions on the coordinated development of real estate industry and regional economy in Shanghai.
【学位授予单位】：上海师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F299.23

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