中国经济增速下降的原因与应对选择

发布时间：2018-07-17 20:53

【摘要】：对中国经济增速下降的原因,本文不同意那种基于人口红利消失和刘易斯转折点到来的解释。目前的担心是,我国经济已经处于通货收缩过程,有效需求的减少将导致当期生产过剩和产能过剩的进一步增加。本文认为,我国仍处在人口红利收获期,目前的增速下降与2002-2012年的经济高速增长是同一关键驱动因素导致的。房地产投资变化及其乘数效应是拉动中国经济走出1997-2001年通货收缩实现经济高速增长的主要引擎,2002-2014年新增GDP的63%是新增房地产投资的贡献,同时又是推动当前经济增速下滑的主要驱动力量;另外,资源的"空间错配"和政府强化行政权力对资源配置的干预,降低了经济增长的质量和效益。正确的增速下降原因判断对于合理的应对选择至关重要。正确的应对选择应当是:调整严控特大城市人口规模的政策,使大都市区成为经济增长的发动机;通过进一步深化大部门体制改革和打破垄断来激发市场活力。
[Abstract]:This article disagrees with the explanation based on the disappearance of the demographic dividend and the arrival of the Lewis turning point. The current worry is that China's economy is already in the process of currency contraction, and the reduction of effective demand will lead to a further increase in overproduction and overcapacity in the current period. This paper holds that China is still in the period of harvest of population dividend, and the decline of current growth rate is caused by the same key driving factor as the rapid economic growth in 2002-2012. The change of real estate investment and its multiplier effect are the main engine to pull the Chinese economy out of the 1997-2001 contraction in currency to achieve rapid economic growth. In 2002-2014, 63% of the new GDP is the contribution of new real estate investment. At the same time, it is the main driving force to drive the current economic growth down. In addition, the "spatial mismatch" of resources and the government's intervention in the allocation of resources by the government have reduced the quality and efficiency of economic growth. Correct judgment of the reasons for the decline in growth is essential to a reasonable choice of responses. The correct choice should be to adjust the policy of strictly controlling the population size of megacities so as to make the metropolitan area the engine of economic growth and to stimulate market vitality by further deepening the structural reform of large departments and breaking monopoly.
【作者单位】：北京交通大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目“集约、智能、绿色、低碳的新型城镇化道路研究”(13&ZD026)
【分类号】：F124

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