安徽省城市化与房地产业发展的关联研究

发布时间：2018-07-18 16:01

【摘要】：城市化是人口向城市集聚的过程,随着我国经济的快速发展,我国城市化水平提高很快,2011年我国的城市化水平首次突破了50%,进入了城市化的快速发展阶段,同时诱发了城市人口对住宅的需求。安徽作为我国中部的一个省份,近年来发展很快,城市化水平逐年上升,2012年城镇人口比率达到46.5%,房地产在安徽的投资额逐年增加。而目前,安徽的城市化和房地产业的发展水平相对较低,尚处在快速发展的起步阶段。在中部崛起的背景下以及长三角城市群的带动下,安徽省的城市化和房地产业发展潜力很大。但是,如果不有效的把握城市化和房地产业发展规律和关联,而任由两者发展,则可能出现一些问题而阻碍城市化发展的质量和房地产业的健康发展。因此,本文首先对城市化与房地产业相关理论进行梳理,构建较为全面、系统的理论框架。其次以相关理论分析为背景,对安徽省城市化与房地产业的关联性进行定性分析。然后从横向和纵向两方面对两者的关联性进行分析：横向方面,采用SPSS软件,选取2010年安徽省17个市城市化和房地产的多个指标作为研究对象,先用主成分分析的方法提取出城市化和房地产业的综合指标及得分值,再计算出房地产六个指标对城市化的直接通径系数和间接通径系数以及城市化的六个指标对房地产综合指标的直接通径系数和间接通径系数,就此得出房地产的各个指标对城市化的直接影响程度和间接影响程度及城市化的各个指标对房地产的直接影响程度和间接影响程度；纵向方面,采用Eviews软件,选取1995-2011年安徽省城市化和房地产业几个指标的数据为研究对象,通过协整检验和格兰杰因果检验验证城市化与房地产业的因果关联。最后,根据上述分析得出结论,并对城市化和房地产的协调发展提出切实可行的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Urbanization is the process of population agglomeration. With the rapid development of China's economy, the level of urbanization in China has increased rapidly. In 2011, the urbanization level of our country broke through 50% for the first time, and entered the stage of rapid development of urbanization. At the same time, it induces the demand of urban population for housing. Anhui, as a province in the central part of China, has developed rapidly in recent years, and the urbanization level has been rising year by year. In 2012, the urban population ratio reached 46.5%, and the investment of real estate in Anhui increased year by year. At present, the development level of urbanization and real estate industry in Anhui is relatively low, and it is still in the initial stage of rapid development. Under the background of the rise of the central region and the driving force of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, the urbanization and real estate industry in Anhui Province have great potential. However, if we do not effectively grasp the laws and relationships of urbanization and real estate development, and let them develop, there may be some problems that hinder the quality of urbanization development and the healthy development of real estate industry. Therefore, this paper firstly combs the related theories of urbanization and real estate industry, and constructs a more comprehensive and systematic theoretical framework. Secondly, the relevance of urbanization and real estate industry in Anhui Province is qualitatively analyzed under the background of relevant theory analysis. Then it analyzes the relationship between them from both horizontal and vertical aspects. In horizontal aspect, SPSS software is used to select several indexes of urbanization and real estate in 17 cities of Anhui Province in 2010 as the research object. The principal component analysis (PCA) is used to extract the comprehensive index and score of urbanization and real estate. Then the direct path coefficient and indirect path coefficient of the six indexes of real estate to urbanization and the direct path coefficient and indirect path coefficient of the six indexes of urbanization to the comprehensive index of real estate are calculated. In this paper, the direct and indirect influence degree of each index of real estate on urbanization and the degree of direct and indirect influence of each index of urbanization on real estate are obtained. The data of urbanization and real estate industry in Anhui Province from 1995 to 2011 are selected as the research object. The causality relationship between urbanization and real estate industry is verified by co-integration test and Granger causality test. Finally, the conclusion is drawn according to the above analysis, and practical policy recommendations are put forward for the coordinated development of urbanization and real estate.
【学位授予单位】：安徽大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23

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