甘肃省房地产价格波动对区域金融稳定影响的实证研究
发布时间：2018-07-18 17:17
【摘要】：近年来,随着中国经济的快速发展,中国房地产市场也成长起来,房地产市场交易变得更加活跃,商品房交易量不断攀升。房地产行业需要大量的资金支持,而资金融通的主要场所是金融市场,这使得房地产市场的发展与金融市场的联系更为密切。在我国,资本市场发展较慢,金融市场的主体仍然是金融机构,因而,金融机构贷款为房地产企业提供了大量的资金来源。同时,房地产市场上的盲目开发与投资会引发房地产市场价格波动,房地产市场价格的波动会直接影响到金融机构的贷款回收,也将对区域金融的稳定产生影响。 本文将甘肃省作为研究对象,选取其2002—2011年的时间数据作为样本,在理论分析和现状描述的基础上,引入了区域金融稳定指标体系,利用熵值法计算出甘肃省2002—2011年的金融稳定综合指数,并建立VAR模型,运用计量方法实证分析了甘肃省房地产价格波动对区域金融稳定的影响,并得出了以下结论： 第一,2002年以来,整体上甘肃省房地产销售面积稳步增加,房地产销售价格持续上升。2003年SARS的爆发和2008年的全球金融危机使得甘肃省房地产市场出现了短暂的冷清,房地产销售面积和销售价格出现了一定的波动,但在一系列政策的引导下,波动幅度相对较小,房地产价格整体上呈现了稳健中上升的态势。 第二,2002—2011年间,甘肃省区域金融稳定状况在逐渐变好,甘肃省区域金融稳定指标体系相关指标发展较好,对区域金融稳定的贡献进一步增强。其中宏观经济状况、企业资产负债率和城镇居民可支配收入在区域金融稳定指标体系中所占比例较大,因而对区域金融稳定的影响更为显著。 第三,甘肃省房地产价格波动对区域金融稳定产生负作用。剧烈的房地产价格波动将使得区域金融稳定性降低,同时,区域金融稳定状况也会随着房地产价格的平稳波动而变的更好。 最后,从加大房地产市场调控、拓宽房地产企业融资渠道、提升金融风险防范意识、完善区域金融稳定体系等视角提出了政策建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid development of China's economy, the Chinese real estate market has also grown up, real estate market transactions become more active, commercial housing transactions continue to rise. The real estate industry needs a lot of financial support, and the main place for financing is the financial market, which makes the development of the real estate market more closely related to the financial market. In China, the development of capital market is slow, the main body of financial market is still financial institutions, so financial institutions provide a large number of sources of capital for real estate enterprises. At the same time, the blind development and investment in the real estate market will lead to the fluctuation of the real estate market price. The fluctuation of the real estate market price will directly affect the loan recovery of financial institutions, and will also have an impact on the stability of regional finance. This paper takes Gansu Province as the research object, selects its time data from 2002 to 2011 as the sample, introduces the regional financial stability index system on the basis of theoretical analysis and current situation description. The comprehensive index of financial stability in Gansu Province from 2002 to 2011 is calculated by entropy method, and the VAR model is established. The impact of real estate price fluctuation on regional financial stability in Gansu Province is analyzed by means of econometric method. And draw the following conclusions: first, since 2002, the overall area of real estate sales in Gansu Province has steadily increased. Real estate sales prices continued to rise. The outbreak of SARS in 2003 and the global financial crisis in 2008 made the real estate market in Gansu Province appear a short period of indifference, real estate sales area and sales prices have fluctuated. But under the guidance of a series of policies, the fluctuation range is relatively small, and the real estate price as a whole presents a steady rising trend. From 2002 to 2011, the situation of regional financial stability in Gansu Province has gradually improved. The index system of regional financial stability of Gansu Province has developed better, and its contribution to regional financial stability has been further strengthened. The macroeconomic situation, the ratio of assets and liabilities of enterprises and the disposable income of urban residents account for a large proportion in the regional financial stability index system, so the impact on regional financial stability is more significant. Third, real estate price fluctuations in Gansu Province have a negative impact on regional financial stability. The violent real estate price fluctuation will reduce the regional financial stability, at the same time, the regional financial stability will change better with the stable fluctuation of the real estate price. Finally, from the angle of increasing the regulation of real estate market, widening the financing channels of real estate enterprises, raising the awareness of financial risk prevention and perfecting the regional financial stability system, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions.
【学位授予单位】：兰州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.27;F832.7
本文编号：2132603
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid development of China's economy, the Chinese real estate market has also grown up, real estate market transactions become more active, commercial housing transactions continue to rise. The real estate industry needs a lot of financial support, and the main place for financing is the financial market, which makes the development of the real estate market more closely related to the financial market. In China, the development of capital market is slow, the main body of financial market is still financial institutions, so financial institutions provide a large number of sources of capital for real estate enterprises. At the same time, the blind development and investment in the real estate market will lead to the fluctuation of the real estate market price. The fluctuation of the real estate market price will directly affect the loan recovery of financial institutions, and will also have an impact on the stability of regional finance. This paper takes Gansu Province as the research object, selects its time data from 2002 to 2011 as the sample, introduces the regional financial stability index system on the basis of theoretical analysis and current situation description. The comprehensive index of financial stability in Gansu Province from 2002 to 2011 is calculated by entropy method, and the VAR model is established. The impact of real estate price fluctuation on regional financial stability in Gansu Province is analyzed by means of econometric method. And draw the following conclusions: first, since 2002, the overall area of real estate sales in Gansu Province has steadily increased. Real estate sales prices continued to rise. The outbreak of SARS in 2003 and the global financial crisis in 2008 made the real estate market in Gansu Province appear a short period of indifference, real estate sales area and sales prices have fluctuated. But under the guidance of a series of policies, the fluctuation range is relatively small, and the real estate price as a whole presents a steady rising trend. From 2002 to 2011, the situation of regional financial stability in Gansu Province has gradually improved. The index system of regional financial stability of Gansu Province has developed better, and its contribution to regional financial stability has been further strengthened. The macroeconomic situation, the ratio of assets and liabilities of enterprises and the disposable income of urban residents account for a large proportion in the regional financial stability index system, so the impact on regional financial stability is more significant. Third, real estate price fluctuations in Gansu Province have a negative impact on regional financial stability. The violent real estate price fluctuation will reduce the regional financial stability, at the same time, the regional financial stability will change better with the stable fluctuation of the real estate price. Finally, from the angle of increasing the regulation of real estate market, widening the financing channels of real estate enterprises, raising the awareness of financial risk prevention and perfecting the regional financial stability system, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions.
【学位授予单位】：兰州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.27;F832.7
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