中国省级尺度建筑存量演变及其对物质和能量需求的影响
发布时间：2018-07-27 15:16
【摘要】：建筑是城市基础设施中的重要组成部分,其不仅为人类提供生产和生活居住服务,同时也因其消耗大量的建筑物质以及相应的能源,对生态环境产生巨大的影响。从物质代谢角度研究建筑存量的动态变化及其产生的环境影响,有助于探寻解决城市生态环境、资源利用以及社会经济活动等各种城市问题的途径。本文聚焦中国省级尺度的建筑存量与流量变化,及其产生的物质和能源消耗影响,是对现有物质流分析方法在区域尺度应用研究的有力补充。研究结果不仅对中国未来建筑存量的走势进行预测,还能分析区域差异,为制定区域差异化的管理政策提供决策依据。本文通过构建人口队列模型(The Cohort Component Method)与物质流分析模型(Material Flow Analysis)相结合的研究方法,动态模拟2010-2050年人口总量和结构变化,在此基础上定量分析并预测其未来建筑存量及流量的演变特征,并评价其对建筑材料物质和能源消耗的影响,通过对中国不同区域的实证研究,还比较了不同发展政策对未来人口、建筑存量以及环境影响的效果。主要结论如下:(1)总建筑存量东部最高,其次是中部和西部。东部呈现缓慢增加再下降的趋势,拐点出现在2030年前后,而中部和西部则呈平缓增长趋势,没有明显的拐点,且西部较东部增长明显。东部城镇住宅建筑存量高于乡村建筑存量,而中部和西部乡村的建筑存量大多高于城镇建筑存量。未来西南、西北和东北区域的大部分省的人口将随着城市化水平提高进一步增加,由此带动建筑需求量持续增加。(2)住宅建筑的物质消耗和能源消耗在2035年前后达到峰值,其中铁、木材、砖、砂砾石、水泥和玻璃六种物质分别为160、64、774、4088、1718、16百万吨,总共转化为标准煤能源消耗为355百万吨,均大于非住宅建筑,且城镇地区表现尤为明显。非住宅建筑产生的环境影响将在未来持续增大,东中西地区的拐点出现在2030-2040年,东部达到拐点的时间普遍要略早于中部和西部,西部有的省份并未出现明显的拐点,且一直处于缓慢增长趋势,并且城镇的变化趋势较乡村明显。(3)城镇化水平与建筑存量增长之间呈现高度正相关关系,新型城镇化发展是中国房地产市场继续发展的重要驱动力。随着未来城市化进程推进,建筑存量将不断扩大,但如何盘活建筑存量,促进宏观经济和房地产市场的平稳健康发展,仍是各级政府所面临的严峻挑战。未来房地产市场将迎来低增长时代,包括政府、房地产开发企业等在内的利益相关者,应认清形势,以选择更稳健、可持续的发展模式。
[Abstract]:Architecture is an important part of urban infrastructure. It not only provides production and living services for human beings, but also exerts a great impact on the ecological environment because it consumes a large amount of building materials and corresponding energy. To study the dynamic changes of building stock and its environmental impact from the point of view of material metabolism is helpful to explore the ways to solve various urban problems such as urban ecological environment, resource utilization and social economic activities. This paper focuses on the changes of building stock and flow at the provincial scale in China, and the impact of material and energy consumption, which is a powerful supplement to the existing methods of mass flow analysis at the regional scale. The results not only predict the trend of China's future building stock, but also analyze the regional differences, and provide a basis for making the management policy of regional differentiation. In this paper, a population cohort model (The Cohort Component Method) and a material flow analysis model (Material Flow Analysis) are constructed to dynamically simulate the population total and structural changes in 2010-2050. On this basis, quantitative analysis and prediction of its future building stock and flow evolution characteristics, and evaluation of its impact on the material and energy consumption of building materials, through the empirical study of different regions in China, The effects of different development policies on future population, building stock and environment are also compared. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) the total building stock in the east is the highest, followed by the central and western. The eastern part showed a trend of slow increase and then decline, the inflection point appeared around 2030, while the central and western regions showed a gentle growth trend, and there was no obvious inflection point, and the western region had more obvious growth than that in the eastern part. The stock of residential buildings in eastern cities and towns is higher than that of rural buildings, while the stock of buildings in central and western villages is mostly higher than that in urban buildings. In the future, the population of most provinces in the southwest, northwest and northeast regions will further increase as the level of urbanization increases, which will lead to a continuous increase in building demand. (2) the material and energy consumption of residential buildings will peak around 2035. Among them, iron, wood, brick, sand and gravel, cement and glass are 160 million tons respectively. The total energy consumption of standard coal is 355 million tons, which is higher than that of non-residential buildings, especially in urban areas. The environmental impact of non-residential buildings will continue to increase in the future. The inflection point in the eastern and western regions appeared in 2030-2040. The time of reaching the inflection point in the east is generally slightly earlier than that in the central and western regions, and no obvious inflection point has appeared in some western provinces. The trend of urban change is more obvious than that of rural areas. (3) there is a high positive correlation between the level of urbanization and the increase of building stock. The development of new urbanization is an important driving force for the continued development of China's real estate market. With the development of urbanization in the future, the construction stock will be expanded continuously. However, how to activate the building stock and promote the steady and healthy development of macroeconomic and real estate market is still a severe challenge for all levels of government. The future real estate market will usher in a low growth era, including the government, real estate development enterprises and other stakeholders, should recognize the situation in order to choose a more stable, sustainable development model.
【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.92;TU241
[Abstract]:Architecture is an important part of urban infrastructure. It not only provides production and living services for human beings, but also exerts a great impact on the ecological environment because it consumes a large amount of building materials and corresponding energy. To study the dynamic changes of building stock and its environmental impact from the point of view of material metabolism is helpful to explore the ways to solve various urban problems such as urban ecological environment, resource utilization and social economic activities. This paper focuses on the changes of building stock and flow at the provincial scale in China, and the impact of material and energy consumption, which is a powerful supplement to the existing methods of mass flow analysis at the regional scale. The results not only predict the trend of China's future building stock, but also analyze the regional differences, and provide a basis for making the management policy of regional differentiation. In this paper, a population cohort model (The Cohort Component Method) and a material flow analysis model (Material Flow Analysis) are constructed to dynamically simulate the population total and structural changes in 2010-2050. On this basis, quantitative analysis and prediction of its future building stock and flow evolution characteristics, and evaluation of its impact on the material and energy consumption of building materials, through the empirical study of different regions in China, The effects of different development policies on future population, building stock and environment are also compared. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) the total building stock in the east is the highest, followed by the central and western. The eastern part showed a trend of slow increase and then decline, the inflection point appeared around 2030, while the central and western regions showed a gentle growth trend, and there was no obvious inflection point, and the western region had more obvious growth than that in the eastern part. The stock of residential buildings in eastern cities and towns is higher than that of rural buildings, while the stock of buildings in central and western villages is mostly higher than that in urban buildings. In the future, the population of most provinces in the southwest, northwest and northeast regions will further increase as the level of urbanization increases, which will lead to a continuous increase in building demand. (2) the material and energy consumption of residential buildings will peak around 2035. Among them, iron, wood, brick, sand and gravel, cement and glass are 160 million tons respectively. The total energy consumption of standard coal is 355 million tons, which is higher than that of non-residential buildings, especially in urban areas. The environmental impact of non-residential buildings will continue to increase in the future. The inflection point in the eastern and western regions appeared in 2030-2040. The time of reaching the inflection point in the east is generally slightly earlier than that in the central and western regions, and no obvious inflection point has appeared in some western provinces. The trend of urban change is more obvious than that of rural areas. (3) there is a high positive correlation between the level of urbanization and the increase of building stock. The development of new urbanization is an important driving force for the continued development of China's real estate market. With the development of urbanization in the future, the construction stock will be expanded continuously. However, how to activate the building stock and promote the steady and healthy development of macroeconomic and real estate market is still a severe challenge for all levels of government. The future real estate market will usher in a low growth era, including the government, real estate development enterprises and other stakeholders, should recognize the situation in order to choose a more stable, sustainable development model.
【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.92;TU241
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