中国多部门CGE模型中金融业的数量分析

发布时间：2018-08-08 17:38

【摘要】：研究并构建一个中等规模的中国经济的静态CGE模型，在此框架下分析金融业与其他行业间互动和财政政策等对中国金融业和宏观经济的影响。主要采用了实证分析和数量分析的方法，通过模型的构建、并利用相关软件来对模型进行调试与求解并得到相关研究成果。研究结果表明，在经济最优化的时候，宏观经济的整体价格体系是稳定的，金融业的税率在各行业里是适中的。金融业的收入来源与支出去向出现了分化。收入来源方面，，三产和服务业为主的行业出现了相对较大的增幅；而原材料加工和房地产等行业则出现了下降，建筑业的降幅甚至高达50%以上。支出去向方面，金融业对所有行业的支出都出现了增加，增幅均为11.7%左右。所以中国宏观经济和产业布局有进一步优化的空间，重点应提升三产和服务业为主的行业。进行政策模拟，令外生的金融业生产税税率分别提升10%与减少10%，得出的结论主要有：一是金融业有一定程度的转移成本的能力。二是当生产税税率增加10%的时候，金融业支出去向均出现下降，降幅为-0.266%；收入来源有增有减，而最优化时应增长的目标产业以下降为主。反之，支出去向均出现增长，增幅为0.296%；收入来源有增有减。三是增税对消费和宏观经济有抑制作用，减税对消费和宏观经济的刺激作用较为明显，且同等幅度下减税的刺激幅度大于增税的抑制幅度。所以生产税减税对调整产业结构、优化金融业发展的效果将好于增税，这点符合常识与预期。但增税与减税对宏观经济整体的影响较小，针对金融行业可以采取降低其行业税率等对策，以优化宏观经济结构和提升总体效用水平；因此政府也有采取增税对策的政策空间。
[Abstract]:This paper studies and constructs a static CGE model of medium scale Chinese economy, and analyzes the influence of the interaction between financial industry and other industries and fiscal policy on Chinese financial industry and macro economy under this framework. This paper mainly adopts the methods of empirical analysis and quantitative analysis to debug and solve the model and obtain the related research results through the construction of the model and the use of relevant software. The results show that when the economy is optimized, the overall price system of the macro economy is stable, and the tax rate of the financial industry is moderate in various industries. The source of revenue and expenditure of the financial industry has been divided. In terms of income sources, industries dominated by tertiary and service industries registered relatively large increases, while industries such as raw material processing and real estate declined, with construction falling by more than 50 percent. In terms of where spending is going, financial sector spending on all sectors has increased, by around 11. 7 percent. Therefore, there is room for further optimization of China's macroeconomic and industrial distribution, with emphasis on upgrading the industries dominated by tertiary and service industries. Carry on the policy simulation, make the exogenetic financial industry production tax rate increase 10% and reduce 10% respectively. The main conclusions are as follows: first, the finance industry has the ability to transfer the cost to a certain extent. The other is that when the tax rate of production tax increases by 10%, the expenditure of the financial industry will decrease by -0.266%, and the source of income will increase and decrease, while the target industry that should grow in the optimum time will be mainly reduced. On the contrary, the expenditure increased by 0.296, and the source of income increased or decreased. Third, the tax increase has a restraining effect on consumption and macro economy, and tax reduction has a more obvious stimulating effect on consumption and macro economy, and the stimulus range of tax reduction is greater than that of tax increase in the same range. Therefore, the effect of production tax reduction on adjusting industrial structure and optimizing the development of financial industry will be better than tax increase, which is in line with common sense and expectation. However, tax increase and tax reduction have little effect on the whole macro-economy. In order to optimize the macroeconomic structure and enhance the overall utility level, the financial industry can take measures such as reducing the tax rate in order to optimize the macroeconomic structure, so the government also has the policy space to take tax increase measures.
【学位授予单位】：北京工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832;F812.42;F224

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