我国货币政策房地产价格传导机制畅通性分析
发布时间：2018-11-06 13:45
【摘要】：经过近二十年的火箭般的飞速发展,我国房地产市场进入了繁荣发展的阶段。在全国范围内,房地产投资占社会总投资的比重日益增高,对各地方经济的影响也是举足轻重,甚至在某些城市,房地产业已经成为了当地的支柱产业。在房地产市场高速发展给当地带来利益的同时,疯狂上涨的房价也滋生出了许多社会题。我国中央银行货币政策目标是保持物价稳定,以此刺激经济增长,房价是物价的重要组成部分,因此,对房价的调控也是货币政策的重要目标之一,而且,目前看来,房产相对于其他资产来说,是更好的实现财富保值增值的渠道,房地产价格的波动对居民财富,消费,投资的影响都是货币当局不可忽视的。但是近几年来,过高的房价却日益成为了当今民众最关心的的民生问题。在很多城市,天价房另很多年轻人望房兴叹,也有很多年轻人,年级轻轻成为了“房奴”,为了房贷而日夜操劳。政府对房价不合理的疯涨现象十分重视,大力打压房价产市场的投机行为,提出“房子是用来住的不是用来炒的”,人民银行也高度配合中央指示精神,利用货币政策对房地产市场进行调控,但是调控效果目前并不显著。因此,货币政策对进行房地产价格传导原理,传导过程中的问题,都值得进行系统的研究,对稳定房地产市场价格,构建和谐社会,另年轻人更好的为中国梦奋斗都有重要意义。本文第一部分首先介绍了选题意义和背景以及国内外众多专家学者在该领域的相关建树,分别从货币政策是如何传导到房地产市场和房地产价格的波动如何影响宏观经济者两方面予以介绍,从研究结果上来看,由于研究对象、角度的不同,学术界在此问题上并没有一致的结论,但是学者的研究思路和框架为今后的进一步研究打下了坚实的基础。文章的第二部分介绍了众多理论经济学家对货币政策传导机制等的理论研究,货币政策房地产传导机制是货币政策资产价格渠道的重要组成部分,货币政策资产价格传导机制主要是指货币当局通过调整货币政策来影响资产价格,再由资产价格的波动来影响民众的消费,投资,进而影响社会总产出,从而达到货币政策的目的。具体到房地产价格来说,主要有两个阶段:第一阶段是货币当局通过政策影响房地产价格。第二环节是房价对经济主体的财富效应和挤出效应和投资效应的影响,进而影响整个宏观经济的过程。第三部分是实证分析部分,本文分别运用了协整分析、误差修正模型、格兰杰因果检验对上两个阶段的各种效应进行了实证检验。对房地产价格,货币供应量,社会投资规模,社会居民消费指数,银行信贷规模等指数分别进行联立方程,得出变量之间的相互影响关系,发现了我国货币政策房地产价格传导机制过程存在的问题。第四部分结合我国的政治经济体制,文化传统等各种因素,系统的分析我国货币政策房地产价格传导机制过程存在的问题,追寻其背后的原因,试图从微观经济主体的利益最大化角度出发,来解释货币政策影响房地产价格这一宏观经济现象。第五部分是对不断完善货币政策资产价格途径传导机制提出相关建议,主要包括政府不断职能转型,央行货币政策的透明化,完善土地拍卖制度,进一步放宽资本管制,改善社会保障体制等
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of the rocket in the past two decades, China's real estate market has entered a stage of prosperity and development. In the whole country, the proportion of real estate investment in the total investment of the society is increasing, and the impact on the local economy is also very important, even in some cities, the real estate industry has become the local pillar industry. At the same time of high-speed development of the real estate market to the local, the soaring house prices also breed many social problems. The goal of the central bank's monetary policy is to keep the prices stable, so as to stimulate the growth of the economy. The house price is an important part of the price. Therefore, the regulation of the house price is also one of the important targets of the monetary policy. It is a better way to realize the value-added value of wealth, and the fluctuation of the real estate price is not negligible to the people's wealth, consumption and investment. But in recent years, high prices have become the most common people of the people today. In many cities, a large number of young people in the sky-price room had a sigh, and many young people, the grade slightly became a 鈥渁 house slave鈥，
本文编号：2314449
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of the rocket in the past two decades, China's real estate market has entered a stage of prosperity and development. In the whole country, the proportion of real estate investment in the total investment of the society is increasing, and the impact on the local economy is also very important, even in some cities, the real estate industry has become the local pillar industry. At the same time of high-speed development of the real estate market to the local, the soaring house prices also breed many social problems. The goal of the central bank's monetary policy is to keep the prices stable, so as to stimulate the growth of the economy. The house price is an important part of the price. Therefore, the regulation of the house price is also one of the important targets of the monetary policy. It is a better way to realize the value-added value of wealth, and the fluctuation of the real estate price is not negligible to the people's wealth, consumption and investment. But in recent years, high prices have become the most common people of the people today. In many cities, a large number of young people in the sky-price room had a sigh, and many young people, the grade slightly became a 鈥渁 house slave鈥，
本文编号：2314449
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