沈阳市浑南新区住宅地价变化及趋势预测研究

发布时间：2018-11-18 12:45

【摘要】：地价是调节土地资源配置的重要手段,是土地市场的核心。沈阳市浑南新区是沈阳市目前重点建设发展区域,随着该地区交通及其他相关城市基础设施的不断完善,出现了具有其自身特点的地价变化规律,尤以住宅用地价格最为明显。由于住宅地价作为城市地价的一个重要组成部分,切实关系到城市居民的民生问题。因此,通过开展住宅用地平均价格水平、住宅地价变化影响因素及变化趋势的研究,以期为调节研究区城市土地的供需矛盾、政府制定地产管理政策、房地产市场进行动态监测和宏观调控提供科学依据。本文以城市地租地价理论、土地供求理论、区位理论等相关理论和已有文献为基础,在充分研究了浑南新区城市结构变迁和土地价格沿革的基础上,通过区段划分、地价样点采集等计算得到了2008年-2012年住宅平均地价和地价指数,并从研究区住宅地价水平变化趋势、住宅地价与房价对比、住宅地价与社会经济环境协调状况三个方面开展了研究区住宅地价变化特征分析；选取商品住宅价格增长率、GDP增长率、物价指数增长率、固定资产投资增长率、房地产开发投资增长率为自变量,建立多元线性回归模型,探讨研究区2008-2012年住宅地价变化的主要影响因素；运用GM(1,1)预测模型对研究区2013年到2014年的住宅用地价格指数进行了科学预测,得到了较为准确的住宅地价水平预测值。研究结果表明：研究区住宅用地价格上涨主要影响因素分别为商品住宅价格的上涨和良好的区域宏观经济环境,但2010年后住宅地价的上涨受国家政策调控影响较大,幅度减缓；研究区住宅用地价格指数预测的实证研究表明,GM(1,1)预测模型在预测地价水平方面有良好的应用潜力,模型预测的结果比较符合浑南新区社会经济发展状况及土地市场变化规律。为保证研究区住宅用地价格的健康发展,应积极采用动态更新机制按时更新调整区片基准地价、根据不同地区实际情况制定差别化地价,同时加大力度查处闲置用地,提高居住用地开发利用效率,进一步加强土地供应中居住用地供应的调控力度,保障住宅用地的合理供给。
[Abstract]:Land price is an important means to adjust the allocation of land resources and the core of land market. Hunnan New District of Shenyang is the key construction and development area of Shenyang at present. With the continuous improvement of traffic and other related urban infrastructure in this area, the law of land price change with its own characteristics appears, especially the price of residential land is the most obvious. As an important part of urban land price, residential land price is closely related to the livelihood of urban residents. Therefore, through the research on the average price level of residential land, the influencing factors of residential land price change and the trend of change, in order to adjust the contradiction between supply and demand of urban land in the study area, the government formulates the real estate management policy. Real estate market dynamic monitoring and macro-control to provide scientific basis. Based on the theory of urban land rent and land price, land supply and demand theory, location theory and other relevant theories and existing literature, this paper studies the urban structure changes and land price evolution of Hunnan New District, and divides the area by section. The average land price and land price index from 2008 to 2012 are calculated by collecting sample points of land price, and the change trend of residential land price level in the study area is analyzed, and the comparison of housing land price and house price is made. The change characteristics of residential land price in the study area are analyzed in three aspects: the coordination of residential land price and social economic environment; Taking the growth rate of commodity housing price, GDP growth rate, price index growth rate, fixed assets investment growth rate and real estate development investment growth rate as independent variables, a multivariate linear regression model is established. To explore the main influencing factors of the change of residential land price in the study area from 2008 to 2012; Based on the GM (1 / 1) model, this paper makes a scientific prediction of the residential land price index from 2013 to 2014 in the study area, and obtains a more accurate prediction value of the residential land price level. The results show that: the main influencing factors of residential land price increase in the study area are the rise of commodity housing price and the good regional macroeconomic environment, but the increase of residential land price after 2010 is greatly affected by the national policy, and the range is slowed down; The empirical study of residential land price index prediction in the study area shows that, GM (1 / 1) forecasting model has good application potential in predicting land price level. The predicted results of the model are in accordance with the social and economic development and the law of land market change in Hunnan New area. In order to ensure the healthy development of residential land price in the study area, we should adopt dynamic renewal mechanism to update and adjust the standard land price on time, make the differential land price according to the actual situation of different regions, and increase the investigation and treatment of idle land. To improve the efficiency of residential land development and utilization, to further strengthen the regulation and control of residential land supply, to ensure the reasonable supply of residential land.
【学位授予单位】：沈阳农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23

【参考文献】