重庆主城2008-2013年商品住宅用地出让量影响因素研究
发布时间：2018-12-09 10:56
【摘要】：在全国土地市场不断发展，市场制度进一步完善的大背景下，重庆土地市场也进入了市场化发展阶段。2008年世界金融危机给重庆土地出让市场带来了较大的影响，使重庆土地出让市场从此进入一个新的复苏和发展阶段。而商品住宅用地作为经营性用地的重要组成部分，房地产市场发展的重要支撑，其出让量是由市场供应和市场需求等因素共同作用的结果，可综合反映商品住宅用地出让市场的整体情况，因此，找出商品住宅用地出让量的影响因素，制定合理有效的土地供应计划、满足市场真实需求，，避免结构性过剩，实现市场供需平衡，对处于新一轮发展模式下的重庆主城商品住宅用地出让市场，是十分重要和必要的。文章从整体分析国内外相关文献入手，在深入了解土地出让市场相关概念的基础上，以土地可持续发展理论、土地“市场失灵”理论及土地“政府失灵”理论为指导，从土地出让市场运行机制及政府在土地出让市场中的行为模式两个方向入手，研究土地出让市场在市场机制及政府行为共同作用下的运行模式，找出在这种运行模式下市场供应及市场需求的影响因素，并由此综合推导出土地出让量的影响因素，包括宏观经济、制度要素、政策规划、社会发展、房地产市场因素五大类。在此基础上，采用主成分回归方法对重庆市主城区商品住宅用地出让量及其主要的影响因素指标进行回归分析，其中政策规划类因素采用专家打分法进行量化处理。得出主要结论包括：宏观经济发展、政策规划、产业结构变化及人口增长都对重庆主城商品住宅用地出让量产生较大的影响，其中宏观经济发展影响最大，制度则是市场健康运行的保障和前提，而重庆主城土地出让价格、商品房销售面积、商品房销售价格指标对土地出让量影响较小。
[Abstract]:Under the background of the continuous development of the national land market and the further improvement of the market system, Chongqing's land market has also entered the stage of market-oriented development. The 2008 world financial crisis has had a great impact on the Chongqing land transfer market. Chongqing land transfer market has entered a new stage of recovery and development. As an important part of commercial land, commercial residential land is an important support for the development of real estate market. The amount of commercial residential land is the result of the combined effect of market supply and market demand. It can comprehensively reflect the overall situation of the commercial residential land transfer market. Therefore, we can find out the factors affecting the amount of commercial residential land transfer, formulate reasonable and effective land supply plans, meet the real demand of the market, and avoid structural excess. It is very important and necessary to realize the balance between supply and demand in the market and to sell the commercial residential land in the main city of Chongqing under the new mode of development. Based on the comprehensive analysis of domestic and foreign literature, and on the basis of deeply understanding the related concepts of land transfer market, the paper is guided by the theory of land sustainable development, the theory of land "market failure" and the theory of land "government failure". Starting with the operation mechanism of the land transfer market and the behavior mode of the government in the land transfer market, the paper studies the operation mode of the land transfer market under the joint action of the market mechanism and the government behavior. The influencing factors of market supply and market demand are found out in this mode, and the influencing factors of land transfer amount are deduced synthetically, including macroeconomic, institutional factors, policy planning, social development and real estate market factors. On this basis, the principal component regression method is used to analyze the quantity of commercial residential land transfer and its main influencing factors in the main urban area of Chongqing, and the factors of policy planning are quantified by expert scoring method. The main conclusions are as follows: macroeconomic development, policy planning, industrial structure change and population growth all have a great impact on the transfer of commercial residential land in Chongqing's main city, in which macroeconomic development has the greatest impact. The system is the guarantee and premise of the healthy operation of the market, while the land transfer price, the sale area of the commercial housing and the price index of the commercial house have little influence on the quantity of the land transfer in the main city of Chongqing.
【学位授予单位】：重庆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.27
本文编号：2369262
[Abstract]:Under the background of the continuous development of the national land market and the further improvement of the market system, Chongqing's land market has also entered the stage of market-oriented development. The 2008 world financial crisis has had a great impact on the Chongqing land transfer market. Chongqing land transfer market has entered a new stage of recovery and development. As an important part of commercial land, commercial residential land is an important support for the development of real estate market. The amount of commercial residential land is the result of the combined effect of market supply and market demand. It can comprehensively reflect the overall situation of the commercial residential land transfer market. Therefore, we can find out the factors affecting the amount of commercial residential land transfer, formulate reasonable and effective land supply plans, meet the real demand of the market, and avoid structural excess. It is very important and necessary to realize the balance between supply and demand in the market and to sell the commercial residential land in the main city of Chongqing under the new mode of development. Based on the comprehensive analysis of domestic and foreign literature, and on the basis of deeply understanding the related concepts of land transfer market, the paper is guided by the theory of land sustainable development, the theory of land "market failure" and the theory of land "government failure". Starting with the operation mechanism of the land transfer market and the behavior mode of the government in the land transfer market, the paper studies the operation mode of the land transfer market under the joint action of the market mechanism and the government behavior. The influencing factors of market supply and market demand are found out in this mode, and the influencing factors of land transfer amount are deduced synthetically, including macroeconomic, institutional factors, policy planning, social development and real estate market factors. On this basis, the principal component regression method is used to analyze the quantity of commercial residential land transfer and its main influencing factors in the main urban area of Chongqing, and the factors of policy planning are quantified by expert scoring method. The main conclusions are as follows: macroeconomic development, policy planning, industrial structure change and population growth all have a great impact on the transfer of commercial residential land in Chongqing's main city, in which macroeconomic development has the greatest impact. The system is the guarantee and premise of the healthy operation of the market, while the land transfer price, the sale area of the commercial housing and the price index of the commercial house have little influence on the quantity of the land transfer in the main city of Chongqing.
【学位授予单位】：重庆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.27
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