北京市保障性住房对商品房价格影响研究

发布时间：2018-12-13 12:44

【摘要】：房地产业作为拉动我国经济的支柱型产业已经获得了蓬勃的发展。随着城市化和工业化进程的加快,人口政策的放开,城市居民人口正在以惊人的速度增加,住房需求与日俱增。然而一线城市的房价如脱缰的烈马般一路飙升,人民对住房的需求与过快增长的房价之间的矛盾变得日益突出。在这种境况下,政府实施了如土地拍卖出让、税收调整等供给控制政策和以限贷、限购、房产税增加为代表的需求管制政策来抑制房价过快上涨,同时也加快了完善住房保障制度的步伐,但新的问题又呈现在人们眼前:保障性住房规模的增加毫无疑问缓解了中低收入群体的住房难问题,但是否会影响商品房市场的发展,是否对商品房价格产生较大影响,其影响是正向还是负向,专家学者对此问题产生了争论。在此背景下全面系统地研究保障性住房对商品房价格的影响成为了一种必然趋势。对于保障性住房对商品房价格影响的问题虽然有许多专家学者进行了研究,但大多都是从经济学原理入手进行定性分析,或者采取面板数据分析、向量自回归模型的定量方法,鲜有利用系统动力学方法来系统地、动态地分析这一问题的。且由于住房问题受当地经济、人口、土地等多重因素的影响,地域性差异相当大,因此讨论保障房建设对商品房价格影响的问题时不能不分区域地一概而论。本文选择北京市房地产市场作为研究对象,以系统动力学理论和供求理论作为支撑,在回顾和总结商品房和保障房的发展历程的基础上,指出了目前北京市房地产市场存在的问题,从供给层面和需求层面分别入手,综合分析了保障房对商品房价格影响的机理。通过因果关系图的建立,反馈回路的分析以及系统流图的建立对北京市商品房价格进行仿真和预测。最后模拟不同保障房政策实施对商品房可能产生的效果,结果显示:保障房用地占比,保障房规划周期,保障房供给量对商品房价格都有不同程度的影响,土地对商品房价格的影响更为显著。本文构建了保障房和商品房影响关系的系统动力学模型,为这一问题的研究提供了新的研究思路,对北京市房地产市场的健康发展产生重要意义。而且通过模型模拟调控结果对调控政策有针对地提出建议,对接下来制定行之有效的宏观调控政策有一定借鉴意义。
[Abstract]:The real estate industry, as the pillar industry that stimulates our country's economy, has already obtained the vigorous development. With the acceleration of urbanization and industrialization and the liberalization of population policy, the population of urban residents is increasing at an alarming rate, and the demand for housing is increasing day by day. But prices in first-tier cities have soared like runaway horses, and the contradiction between people's demand for housing and rising prices has become increasingly acute. In this situation, the government has implemented supply control policies such as land auction and sale, tax adjustment, and demand control policies, such as restricting loans, limiting purchases, and increasing property taxes, to curb the excessive rise in house prices. At the same time, the pace of improving the housing security system has also been quickened, but new problems have emerged: the increase in the scale of affordable housing undoubtedly alleviates the housing difficulties of the middle and low income groups, but whether it will affect the development of the commercial housing market, Experts and scholars have debated whether the impact on the price of commercial housing is positive or negative. In this context, a comprehensive and systematic study of the impact of affordable housing on the price of commercial housing has become an inevitable trend. Although many experts and scholars have studied the impact of affordable housing on the price of commercial housing, most of them are qualitative analysis based on the principles of economics, or the quantitative method of panel data analysis and vector autoregressive model. It is rare to analyze this problem systematically and dynamically by using the method of system dynamics. Because the housing problem is influenced by many factors, such as local economy, population, land and so on, the regional difference is quite great. Therefore, when discussing the influence of indemnificatory apartment construction on the price of commercial housing, we should generalize it by region. This paper chooses the real estate market of Beijing as the research object, taking the theory of system dynamics and the theory of supply and demand as the support, on the basis of reviewing and summing up the development course of commercial housing and indemnificatory apartment. This paper points out the problems existing in the real estate market of Beijing at present, and analyzes comprehensively the mechanism of indemnificatory apartment's influence on the price of commercial housing from the aspects of supply and demand. Through the establishment of causality diagram, the analysis of feedback loop and the establishment of system flow chart, the paper simulates and forecasts the price of commercial housing in Beijing. At last, we simulate the possible effects of different indemnificatory apartment policies on commercial housing. The results show that the proportion of land used by indemnificatory apartment, the planning cycle of indemnificatory apartment, and the supply of indemnificatory apartment have different degrees of influence on the price of commercial housing. The impact of land on the price of commercial housing is more significant. In this paper, the system dynamics model of the relationship between indemnificatory apartment and commercial housing is constructed, which provides a new way of thinking for the study of this problem, and has important significance for the healthy development of the real estate market in Beijing. And through the model simulation of the results of regulation and control policy to put forward suggestions for the next effective macro-control policy has a certain reference significance.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.23

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