市场比较法的灰色模糊建模及其应用
发布时间：2018-12-13 15:15
【摘要】：自1995年1月1日起施行的《中华人民共和国城市房地产管理法》第33条规定：“国家实行房地产价格评估制度”。房地产估价必须要科学、合理,以有助于建立合理的房地产市场秩序,促进房地产的公平交易,将房地产价格导向正常化。而后,随着1998年7月3日,国务院颁布《国务院关于进一步深化城镇住房制度改革,加快住房建设的通知》以来,我国住宅市场实现了由租到售的跨越,住宅市场的建设也引起了全社会的广泛关注,并逐渐成为国民经济的支柱产业。然目前房地产市场发展尚不成熟,房地产作为商品,其品质各不相同和复杂的特性决定了房地产市场是“不完全市场”,且市场信息不对称,不会自动地形成常人容易识别的适当价格,有许多阻碍房地产价格合理形成的因素,在其判断中要求有专门的知识和经验。现阶段,相对于成本法和收益法,市场比较法是更加直接地依赖于市场的现实资料,所以,相对于上面两种方法,人们对市场比较法更加容易理解与依赖。这就导致了市场比较法作为最重要、最常用的评估方法之一,其往往在房地产估价的实务中被专业估价人员首先选用。 本论文首先从市场比较法入手,通过对市场比较法的分析,理解其评估房地产价格的基本原理,总结市场比较法的优点与不足。然后根据其评估方法的不足,通过理论研究与分析,找到一种能够将市场法更简便且以量化的形式对房地产进行估价的方法。即提出了市场比较法的灰色模糊建模方法：首先利用灰色系统理论中灰关联度分析理论对影响房地产价格的主要因素进行筛选；其次通过模糊数学理论中的能够度量两模糊集之间接近程度的贴近度原理来选择与待估房地产最为相近的可比实例；然后结合灰系统论中GM(1,1)预测模型对市场比较法涉及的交易时间进行调整；最后借助于GM(1,N)模型来建立房地产价格与影响房地产价格的各因子之间的状态关系,分析影响因素与价格之间的影响规律,根据己获取的待估房地产影响因素评估出待估房地产的价格。通过以上理论建模的分析,最后进行了实证分析验证：求取云南省昆明市的某一宗房地产价格的案例。该案例按照以上建模理论逐步求取,得出的可比实例的估价值与实际交易值的误差很小甚至为零。从而得出结论：市场比较法的灰色模糊建模不仅在理论上可行,而且在实践中可操作。
[Abstract]:Article 33 of the Law of the people's Republic of China on Urban Real Estate Management, which came into effect on January 1, 1995, stipulates: "the State implements the system of real estate price evaluation." Real estate valuation must be scientific and reasonable in order to help establish a reasonable order of real estate market promote the fair transaction of real estate and normalize the real estate price. Then, with the promulgation of the notice of the State Council on further deepening the Reform of Urban Housing system and speeding up Housing Construction on July 3, 1998, the housing market in China has achieved a leapfrog from rent to sale. The construction of the housing market has also aroused the widespread concern of the whole society, and has gradually become the pillar industry of the national economy. However, at present, the real estate market is not mature, the real estate as a commodity, its quality is different and complex characteristics determine that the real estate market is "incomplete market", and the market information is asymmetric. There are many factors hindering the reasonable formation of real estate price, which require special knowledge and experience in its judgment. At present, compared with the cost method and the income method, the market comparative method is more directly dependent on the actual data of the market. Therefore, compared with the above two methods, it is easier for people to understand and rely on the market comparative method. This leads to market comparison as one of the most important and most commonly used evaluation methods, which is often chosen by professional appraisers in the practice of real estate valuation. This paper begins with the market comparative method, through the analysis of the market comparative method, understand its basic principle of evaluating the real estate price, and summarize the advantages and disadvantages of the market comparative method. Then, according to the deficiency of its evaluation method, through theoretical research and analysis, we find a more simple and quantitative method to evaluate real estate. In this paper, the grey fuzzy modeling method of market comparison method is put forward. Firstly, the main factors affecting real estate price are screened by grey relational degree analysis theory in grey system theory. Secondly, by means of the principle of closeness degree which can measure the degree of proximity between two fuzzy sets in the theory of fuzzy mathematics, we can select the comparable example which is the most close to the real estate to be evaluated. Then the trading time involved in the market comparison method is adjusted with the GM (1 / 1) prediction model in the grey system theory. Finally, by means of GM (1n) model, the state relationship between real estate price and the factors affecting real estate price is established, and the influence law between influencing factor and price is analyzed. Evaluate the price of real estate to be evaluated according to the factors that affect the real estate. Through the analysis of the above theoretical modeling, the empirical analysis is carried out: a real estate price case in Kunming, Yunnan Province is obtained. According to the above modeling theory, the estimated value of the comparable example and the actual transaction value are calculated step by step in this case, and the error between the estimated value and the actual transaction value is very small or even zero. It is concluded that the grey fuzzy modeling of market comparison method is not only feasible in theory, but also operational in practice.
【学位授予单位】：昆明理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23;F224
[Abstract]:Article 33 of the Law of the people's Republic of China on Urban Real Estate Management, which came into effect on January 1, 1995, stipulates: "the State implements the system of real estate price evaluation." Real estate valuation must be scientific and reasonable in order to help establish a reasonable order of real estate market promote the fair transaction of real estate and normalize the real estate price. Then, with the promulgation of the notice of the State Council on further deepening the Reform of Urban Housing system and speeding up Housing Construction on July 3, 1998, the housing market in China has achieved a leapfrog from rent to sale. The construction of the housing market has also aroused the widespread concern of the whole society, and has gradually become the pillar industry of the national economy. However, at present, the real estate market is not mature, the real estate as a commodity, its quality is different and complex characteristics determine that the real estate market is "incomplete market", and the market information is asymmetric. There are many factors hindering the reasonable formation of real estate price, which require special knowledge and experience in its judgment. At present, compared with the cost method and the income method, the market comparative method is more directly dependent on the actual data of the market. Therefore, compared with the above two methods, it is easier for people to understand and rely on the market comparative method. This leads to market comparison as one of the most important and most commonly used evaluation methods, which is often chosen by professional appraisers in the practice of real estate valuation. This paper begins with the market comparative method, through the analysis of the market comparative method, understand its basic principle of evaluating the real estate price, and summarize the advantages and disadvantages of the market comparative method. Then, according to the deficiency of its evaluation method, through theoretical research and analysis, we find a more simple and quantitative method to evaluate real estate. In this paper, the grey fuzzy modeling method of market comparison method is put forward. Firstly, the main factors affecting real estate price are screened by grey relational degree analysis theory in grey system theory. Secondly, by means of the principle of closeness degree which can measure the degree of proximity between two fuzzy sets in the theory of fuzzy mathematics, we can select the comparable example which is the most close to the real estate to be evaluated. Then the trading time involved in the market comparison method is adjusted with the GM (1 / 1) prediction model in the grey system theory. Finally, by means of GM (1n) model, the state relationship between real estate price and the factors affecting real estate price is established, and the influence law between influencing factor and price is analyzed. Evaluate the price of real estate to be evaluated according to the factors that affect the real estate. Through the analysis of the above theoretical modeling, the empirical analysis is carried out: a real estate price case in Kunming, Yunnan Province is obtained. According to the above modeling theory, the estimated value of the comparable example and the actual transaction value are calculated step by step in this case, and the error between the estimated value and the actual transaction value is very small or even zero. It is concluded that the grey fuzzy modeling of market comparison method is not only feasible in theory, but also operational in practice.
【学位授予单位】：昆明理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23;F224
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相关期刊论文 前8条
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3 李s，
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