空中危险接近的系统动力学机理及仿真研究
发布时间：2018-07-21 12:54
【摘要】：为了探索空中危险接近的形成过程与反馈机制,运用系统动力学的方法深入分析了空中危险接近影响因素间的复杂相互作用和回馈效应,建立了空中危险接近发生机理的动态模型,包括管制服务、人力资源和安全三大子系统,利用Vensim软件对其进行模拟仿真,可预测不同场景下空中危险接近的变化趋势。结果表明:乐观场景时,2005—2015年空中危险接近数量呈缓慢增长趋势,2015年之后保持不变,这表明在国内航班量稳步增长时,空中危险接近事件的数量不变,事故率越来越低;悲观场景时,空中危险接近数量一直处于上升趋势,2021年之前缓慢增长,这表明虽然设备故障率和管制员的防撞培训频率不高,但缩短TCAS(Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System,空中交通预警和防撞系统)反应时间能在短期内明显提高管制员的专注程度,从而延缓空中不安全事件的数量增长,但随着2021年后指挥架次的增加,反应时间越短,空中危险接近事件会越多。
[Abstract]:In order to explore the formation process and feedback mechanism of airborne danger approach, the complex interaction and feedback effect among the influencing factors of air hazard approach are analyzed by the method of system dynamics. A dynamic model of the mechanism of air hazard approach is established, which includes three subsystems: control service, human resource and security. By using Vensim software, the dynamic model can predict the trend of air danger approaching in different scenarios. The results show that the number of airborne danger approaching from 2005 to 2015 shows a slow increasing trend, and remains unchanged after 2015, which indicates that the number of airborne dangerous approaching incidents remains unchanged and the accident rate is lower and lower when the number of domestic flights increases steadily; In pessimistic scenarios, the number of airborne hazards has been on the rise, rising slowly until 2021, suggesting that although equipment failure rates and controllers' anti-collision training are not high, But shortening the reaction time of the Traffic Alert and collision Avoidance system can significantly increase the concentration of controllers in the short term, thus slowing the increase in the number of air insecurity incidents, but with the increase in the number of air traffic sorties after 2021, The shorter the reaction time, the more airborne danger approaches events.
【作者单位】： 中国民航大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：中央高校基本科研业务费中国民航大学专项(3122015B001)
【分类号】：V328;V355.1
本文编号：2135590
[Abstract]:In order to explore the formation process and feedback mechanism of airborne danger approach, the complex interaction and feedback effect among the influencing factors of air hazard approach are analyzed by the method of system dynamics. A dynamic model of the mechanism of air hazard approach is established, which includes three subsystems: control service, human resource and security. By using Vensim software, the dynamic model can predict the trend of air danger approaching in different scenarios. The results show that the number of airborne danger approaching from 2005 to 2015 shows a slow increasing trend, and remains unchanged after 2015, which indicates that the number of airborne dangerous approaching incidents remains unchanged and the accident rate is lower and lower when the number of domestic flights increases steadily; In pessimistic scenarios, the number of airborne hazards has been on the rise, rising slowly until 2021, suggesting that although equipment failure rates and controllers' anti-collision training are not high, But shortening the reaction time of the Traffic Alert and collision Avoidance system can significantly increase the concentration of controllers in the short term, thus slowing the increase in the number of air insecurity incidents, but with the increase in the number of air traffic sorties after 2021, The shorter the reaction time, the more airborne danger approaches events.
【作者单位】： 中国民航大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：中央高校基本科研业务费中国民航大学专项(3122015B001)
【分类号】：V328;V355.1
【相似文献】
相关期刊论文 前1条
1 闫学庭;;第三只“眼”——记三次正确处置空中危险接近的机长童征华[J];江苏航空;2000年03期
相关硕士学位论文 前1条
1 杨昌其;事故调查中危险接近的量化研究[D];西南交通大学;2004年
，本文编号：2135590
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/guanlilunwen/renliziyuanguanlilunwen/2135590.html
