结构变迁过程中的人力资本与高等教育投资回报

发布时间：2018-08-07 13:52

【摘要】：近年来中国人力资本积累迅速,但这有可能造成人力资本回报率大幅降低。本文采用总和生产率法,对中国人力资本的规模进行更为精确的测度,根据增长核算框架推导出人力资本和简单劳动的报酬水平,采用明瑟方程法和投资收益法计算出劳动者投资高等教育的投资回报率。研究结果表明,按照明瑟方程法计算的人力资本回报率从1982年的60%以上迅速下降到1984年的34%,随后持续下降至2015年的10%并保持至2030年。采用投资收益法计算的总投资回报倍数在20世纪80年代达25倍左右,从80年代末起快速下降至2026年的5.8倍;2000年前各世代接受人力资本的年投资回报率在职业生涯的顶峰可以达到50%以上,而2010年以后接受高等教育的世代只能维持在20%-30%左右。这表明,中国的高等教育回报率降低将成为未来经济发展的重要问题。为了确保人力资本得到合理的回报,中国未来应努力消除人力资本定价机制扭曲,鼓励人力资本密集行业发展,促进服务贸易和人力资本的资本化。
[Abstract]:In recent years, human capital has accumulated rapidly in China, but this may cause a substantial reduction in the rate of return on human capital. In this paper, the sum productivity method is used to measure the scale of human capital in China more accurately. According to the growth accounting framework, the remuneration level of human capital and simple labor is derived, and the Ming Joseph equation method and the investment income method are adopted. The rate of return on investment in higher education was calculated. The results showed that the rate of return on human capital calculated by the Ming equation method fell from more than 60% in 1982 to 34% in 1984, and then continued to fall to 10% in 2015 and to 2030. The total return multiplier calculated by the investment return method was 80 years in twentieth Century. From the end of 80s to about 25 times, from the end of 80s to 5.8 times that in 2026, the annual return on human capital for each generation before 2000 can reach more than 50% at the peak of the career, and the generation of higher education after 2010 can only be maintained at about 20%-30%. In order to ensure the reasonable return of human capital in the future, in order to ensure the reasonable return of human capital, China should strive to eliminate the distortion of the pricing mechanism of human capital in the future, encourage the development of manpower capital intensive industries, and promote the capitalization of service trade and human capital.
【作者单位】：首都经济贸易大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金青年项目“新常态下我国经济增长转型与结构变迁研究”(项目编号:16CJL022)的阶段性研究成果
【分类号】：F249.2;G649.2

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